The White Peril 白禍

So the composition of Fukuda's cabinet is nearly the same as that of Abe's most recent one. (Two ministers who supported Taro Aso for prime minister were apparently surprised to be retained.) The approval rating for the new cabinet is 53%.

No, make that 59%.

Oops! I mean, 58%.

Whatever. It looks as if a majority-and-change of voters approve of the new Fukuda administration, though that may change once it's had a chance to start doing things. (And to look at it from another angle, 74% of eligible voters think the lower house should be dissolved at some point within the year.)

Most of us foreign bloggers who write about Japanese politics pay a lot of attention to foreign policy, for obvious reasons. But domestic policy is a potential cause for worry, too, in ways that could eventually affect the balance of power in East Asia.

There's been a lot of talk that the recent economic recovery has disproportionally benefited urban areas and [ominous radio soap opera organ music] "big business." Fukuda and Aso both made a point of talking about assistance to rural areas, which have traditionally been a crucial part of the LDP voting base. I can't find the Japanese report I originally saw, but the AP noted one of Fukuda's statements before the election:

"I'll seriously consider the rural problems and will listen to the voices of the residents," Fukuda, 71, said as he walked through a shopping arcade near a local train station. "I see a lot of shops that had been closed down. We must take care of the problem."

Reforms in recent years have allowed the economy's steady expansion after long years of stagnation, but critics say the benefits are limited to big corporations and are not reaching small business and rural towns.

Dissatisfaction over the slow economic recovery among rural voters was also considered a major cause for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party's loss in the July elections for the upper house of parliament.

I'm not sure that rural areas can realistically recover without undergoing even more pain in the short term. During the era of economic hypergrowth, Japan did not encourage its workers to expect shocks and be adaptable. Small, depopulating towns have done a terrible job of capitalizing on opportunities for tourism and niche-market manufacturing. (In that sense, they're following the leads of the major cities, with their ridiculous high-tech "new city" boondoggles, but at least the metro agglomerations have wealth-creating enterprises to counterbalance them.) The laws governing urban planning and large-scale retail stores have morphed over the years, and there's more regulatory control in the hands of local governments; but the fact remains that the poorest parts of Japan are places where the potential for cheap distribution is least capitalized on. Not that big corporations are benefiting solely because of greater efficiency and quality control; they know how to leverage their longstanding relationships with the bureaucrats that effectively regulate them to their benefit, too.

Japan is still stuck in the mindset of trying to predict and then micromanage the future. That may provide a comforting sense of stability in the short term, and it enables politicians to unveil grand plans that show they're "getting things done," but it's a recipe for disaster when the world changes in unanticipated ways. Me, what I anticipate is more rhetoric and economy-distorting subsidies.

No surprise here: Yasuo Fukuda will be the new LDP president. He's the same age (71) as his father, Takeo Fukuda, was when he became prime minister. Oddly for such an insider-driven country, he'll be the first child to succeed a parent to the position. (There are other children of former prime ministers active in politics, of course--Makiko Tanaka springs readily to mind.) My good friend and politics junkie Jun'ichiro commented the other day that Fukuda is a good technocrat but may not be a leader. I can see that. I'd have liked it if we could have had Taro Aso's foreign policy approach without his power lust and general jerkitude. Unfortunately, you have to take candidates as they are.

I like confrontation, so Fukuda's make-nice approach is not one I warm to easily, but I think it may actually work in the LDP's favor for the next few months. He's apparently planning to keep most key ministers in the cabinet, so there won't be another upheaval. And looking outside, the DPJ is open about wanting war (between the ruling and opposition coalitions, I mean), so if Fukuda comes on all friendly, it could make the opposition look petty and mean. Not the best image to have if you want a dissolution of the lower house of the Diet to work in your favor.

BTW, Will Wilkinson has a long post up about research into the moral dimensions of politics. One of his throwaway examples caught my attention:

Haidt's early research on moralized disgust shows that its cultural manifestations vary. The Japanese apparently find it disgusting to fail their station and its duties.

Well, I don't know that I would refer to that as a cultural "manifestation" of disgust, exactly. I think it's more accurate to say that the Japanese are acculturated in such a way as to attach reflexive, visceral disgust to dereliction of duty. Doing what you're told...being what you're told...is drilled into people to the point that it becomes second nature, so they tend to flinch with child-like "that's yucky!" horror when someone harshes the wa. (Many foreigners are driven bonkers by the Japanese tendency, when asked to do something that doesn't follow the usual rules, to grimace, pull the chin inward, and suck in the breath as if confronted with a slug in the salad.) From that vantage point, it's interesting to think about how the commentators reacted to Prime Minister Abe's sudden resignation. Faces registered shock but also revulsion. Of course, that's just my interpretation based on what I happened to see on television. But I really don't think I'm projecting.

Since we all know that polls are the last word in reliability, Yasuo Fukuda supporters can take comfort in last week's Asahi poll. 53% of voters polled preferred Fukuda as the new Prime Minister, while 21% supported Taro Aso.

Of course, that poll was taken on 15 and 16 September, and a lot can change in the run-up to an election. Fukuda and Aso appeared at Shibuya Station on Sunday to lay out their policy positions for the public, now that they're the only two remaining contenders for Prime Minister this coming weekend. The Asahi probably has the best overall summary. Both took care to play to the LDP's rural voting base by promising to address economic inequalities between urban and non-urban areas. (Aso assured voters that he did not support unbridled market liberalization and competition--as if we needed to be told that.)

They also addressed foreign policy:

Disturbed by the serious souring of Japan's relationships with China and South Korea during the Koizumi era, Fukuda was trying to mend the ties. Abe's visits to the two countries soon after he came to power have changed the atmosphere between Japan and these countries. But Fukuda appears to be hoping to bring fundamental changes to these important relations.

Aso vowed to promote the "arc of freedom and prosperity" initiative he proposed as Abe's foreign minister. This initiative is based on the idea of supporting countries that share such basic values as freedom and democracy. But his vision of the "arc" doesn't include China and is therefore criticized as an attempt to create a network of countries around China to contain the expansion of its regional influence.

Aso seems to be advocating a dual approach to dealing with China that combines dialogue with diplomatic maneuvering to put a brake on its influence.

There's a transcript of a lecture Aso gave about his "arc" vision here. It might be noted that he doesn't mention post-Soviet Russia as part of the "arc of freedom and prosperity" either, and in a way it comes off as a more pointed omission than China, because he discusses the democratization and EU membership of the Baltic States and the need for greater stability in Georgia and Ukraine.

The objective is for us to help democracy take root in a region that we envision as an 'arc of freedom and prosperity,' extending from the Baltic Sea to the Black and Caspian Seas.

Hmmm...any ideas what we might be arcing around? (He does mention the importance of improved relations with both the PRC and Russia at the beginning.)

North Korea, of course, is one of the biggest issues. The issue of the Japanese abductees is always in play here, and voters liked Aso’s firm line. Fukuda promises to take a more flexible approach:

In Osaka, both candidates addressed the North Korea abductee issue. Fukuda stated, “I want to be the one to solve this problem,” and his indicated that he had resolved to effect normalization of Japan-DPRK relations through dialogue. Aso stated emphatically, “Without pressure, no dialogue will get off the ground.”

Abe’s approach was to patch things up with economic heavy-hitters China and South Korea while taking a hard line toward economic empty set North Korea. It was popular. The abductee issue tends to be back-burnered in favor of nukes at the six-party talks, so Japan has essentially resigned itself to trying to resolve the problem with catch-as-catch-can support from its allies. But I’m not sure there is a resolution. The DPRK has been jerking around the families of abductees (notably poor Megumi Yokota’s parents) for years now. Maybe there is no approach that’s going to get Japan the information it wants.

It wasn’t just Fukuda’s position on the DPRK that came off as dithery; his delivery was shaky, too. Aso was more confident; on the other hand, he hides his lust for power about as well as Hillary Clinton does, and his glee at being in the running for the top spot was possibly a bit too naked. But there are plenty of points that could be scored and lost this week. And as the Asahi notes, neither of them really explained how he planned to work with the newly strengthened opposition parties. For now, Fukuda still has the support of all the major factions.

Since we all know that polls are the last word in reliability, Yasuo Fukuda supporters can take comfort in last week's Asahi poll. 53% of voters polled preferred Fukuda as the new Prime Minister, while 21% supported Taro Aso.

Of course, that poll was taken on 15 and 16 September, and a lot can change in the run-up to an election. Fukuda and Aso appeared at Shibuya Station on Sunday to lay out their policy positions for the public, now that they're the only two remaining contenders for Prime Minister this coming weekend. The Asahi probably has the best overall summary. Both took care to play to the LDP's rural voting base by promising to address economic inequalities between urban and non-urban areas. (Aso assured voters that he did not support unbridled market liberalization and competition--as if we needed to be told that.)

They also addressed foreign policy:

Disturbed by the serious souring of Japan's relationships with China and South Korea during the Koizumi era, Fukuda was trying to mend the ties. Abe's visits to the two countries soon after he came to power have changed the atmosphere between Japan and these countries. But Fukuda appears to be hoping to bring fundamental changes to these important relations.

Aso vowed to promote the "arc of freedom and prosperity" initiative he proposed as Abe's foreign minister. This initiative is based on the idea of supporting countries that share such basic values as freedom and democracy. But his vision of the "arc" doesn't include China and is therefore criticized as an attempt to create a network of countries around China to contain the expansion of its regional influence.

Aso seems to be advocating a dual approach to dealing with China that combines dialogue with diplomatic maneuvering to put a brake on its influence.

There's a transcript of a lecture Aso gave about his "arc" vision here. It might be noted that he doesn't mention post-Soviet Russia as part of the "arc of freedom and prosperity" either, and in a way it comes off as a more pointed omission than China, because he discusses the democratization and EU membership of the Baltic States and the need for greater stability in Georgia and Ukraine.

The objective is for us to help democracy take root in a region that we envision as an 'arc of freedom and prosperity,' extending from the Baltic Sea to the Black and Caspian Seas.

Hmmm...any ideas what we might be arcing around? (He does mention the importance of improved relations with both the PRC and Russia at the beginning.)

North Korea, of course, is one of the biggest issues. The issue of the Japanese abductees is always in play here, and voters liked Aso’s firm line. Fukuda promises to take a more flexible approach:

In Osaka, both candidates addressed the North Korea abductee issue. Fukuda stated, “I want to be the one to solve this problem,” and his indicated that he had resolved to effect normalization of Japan-DPRK relations through dialogue. Aso stated emphatically, “Without pressure, no dialogue will get off the ground.”

Abe’s approach was to patch things up with economic heavy-hitters China and South Korea while taking a hard line toward economic empty set North Korea. It was popular. The abductee issue tends to be back-burnered in favor of nukes at the six-party talks, so Japan has essentially resigned itself to trying to resolve the problem with catch-as-catch-can support from its allies. But I’m not sure there is a resolution. The DPRK has been jerking around the families of abductees (notably poor Megumi Yokota’s parents) for years now. Maybe there is no approach that’s going to get Japan the information it wants.

It wasn’t just Fukuda’s position on the DPRK that came off as dithery; his delivery was shaky, too. Aso was more confident; on the other hand, he hides his lust for power about as well as Hillary Clinton does, and his glee at being in the running for the top spot was possibly a bit too naked. But there are plenty of points that could be scored and lost this week. And as the Asahi notes, neither of them really explained how he planned to work with the newly strengthened opposition parties. For now, Fukuda still has the support of all the major factions.

Wow. Shinzo Abe can't win for losing. Japan's opposition parties have been calling vociferously for his resignation for months. Yesterday he announced his resignation...and they're criticizing him for it.

Democratic Party of Japan President Ichiro Ozawa criticized Prime Minister Shinzo Abe for his abrupt resignation announcement on Wednesday.

"[Abe] had been scheduled to answer questions from party representatives about his policy speech at the Diet today, but he suddenly announced his resignation," Ozawa said at a press conference, adding that it was the first time in his political career of 40 years that he had witnessed a prime minister resigning within days of delivering a policy speech in the Diet. "To tell you the truth, I've no idea what was going through Prime Minister Abe's mind before he made the announcement."

Ozawa denied media reports that he had repeatedly rejected requests from Abe to hold talks with him. Ozawa said the first request from Abe came Wednesday morning through Liberal Democratic Party Diet Affairs Committee Chairman Tadamori Oshima to DPJ Diet Affairs Committee Chairman Kenji Yamaoka.

Well, it was pretty abrupt. I remember reading the report yesterday and thinking, What was it that made him decide this today? This morning he announced that he's going into the hospital to have gastrointestinal problems diagnosed, but commentators are divided over whether that was as big a factor as it's made out to be. Abe has exhausted all his political capital for the moment, but he's young. It's been rumored for ages that LDP higher-ups had been urging Abe to step down while he still had some dignity and could make a new bid for the prime minister's slot after a few more years of seasoning.

Who knows? Maybe that could still work. But as I see it, Abe has one major problem that no amount of experience is likely to correct: he lacks charisma. Utterly. Koizumi was the sort of man who commanded attention. If you were cooking or reading with the television on in the background, you stopped what you were doing and looked up when he started speaking. He was a natural focal point, in a way that went deeper than his haircut and Elvis fixation and all that stuff. When he staked his job on the passage of the Japan Post privatization bills, it was a serious showdown. His sternness and conviction had dimension and heft. You felt it, even when he was making compromises left and right in practice.

By contrast, when Abe staked his job on the passage of the extension of the anti-terrorism law, it was hard to get worked up (and I say that as a WOT-supporting American). Abe is clearly a skillful operator when it comes to negotiating with other politicians and playing them off one another--one does not become Prime Minister of Japan otherwise--but only to a certain point. That final promotion to political head of state brought the Peter Principle into play with a vengeance. The issues Abe's administration has had to contend with--evolving Japanese nationalism, relations with China and the Koreas, the extension of the MSDF mission, tankerloads of corruption scandals--require an alpha wolf. Even in consensus-loving Japan, people get the heebs when it seems as if there's no one in charge in the cabinet. Abe simply doesn't project authority.

On Wednesday, even Liberal Democratic Party Diet members close to Abe sternly criticized him after his resignation sent shock waves through the party.

"I'm disappointed in him as he's tossed out his administration," one of them said.

"How does he see the responsibilities of a prime minister?" another asked.

At a press conference in Sydney on Sunday after the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, Abe indicated that he would devote his energies to extending the refueling mission by the Maritime Self-Defense Force in the Indian Ocean, even at the cost of his job.

He gave the impression that he was determined to do his best to fulfill his international pledge of extending the MSDF mission by holding firm to his post.

In reality, however, those who took the prime minister at his word were mistaken.

One temporary advantage his successor will have is that he will have a ready excuse for seeming unprepared and needing a little time to find his balance. The opposition won big in the recent upper house election, but that wasn't the result of affection for the DPJ as much as it was the result of disgust with the LDP. Unfortunately, I'm not sure there are any LDP players in the running who can project moxie as leaders while making the compromises necessitated by the new balance of power in the Diet. I've always liked Yasuo Fukuda, who like Abe is a former Chief Cabinet Secretary. He also has experience in foreign affairs and came off as tough and clear-headed when delivering the Koizumi cabinet's policy statements to the press. He resigned amid the Social Insurance payment scandals of a few years ago, but there don't seem to be any contenders for power who are unsullied by scandal these days. We'll see soon enough who gets the nod.

Added on 14 September: Speaking of no-charisma public figures, Ann Althouse links to this whinefest by Demi Moore about how she can't get good parts because Hollywood doesn't know what to do with older women:

The 44-year-old told a magazine: "It's been a challenging few years, being the age I am. Almost to the point where I felt like, well, they don't know what to do with me. I am not 20. Not 30.

"There aren't that many good roles for women over 40. A lot of them don't have much substance, other than being someone's mother or wife."

Moore refurbished herself into a wrinkle-and-flab-free android--check out the two photos, and notice how spookily vinyl-ish she looks in the more recent one--but didn't address her failure to translate the bubbly, mischievous charm she projected during her Brat Pack days into adult terms.

Well, Tokyo wasn't wiped out by last night's Epochal Vortex of Death, though of course it managed to screw up air and rail transit schedules beautifully. At my office, we were ordered to leave by eight o'clock (which people do have to be told here in Japan). One thing you never get used to if you're from the States (or Australia, say my antipodean friends), is seeing weather graphics like this:



Notice the way the storm essentially covers the entire width of the country as it moves northward. There's been only one confirmed death, and there have been several dozen injuries, but things appear not to have been as bad as the "Storm of the Century" (all seven years of it?) fears.