The White Peril 白禍

Surprise! It's Abe.

I mean, the next president of the LDP and therefore Prime Minister of Japan will be Shinzo Abe. He got 66% of the vote. Of course, that's internal. The public has been ambivalent, despite Abe's Clinton-ish way of addressing himself to the average middle-class citizen and even as reports hammered away at the near-inevitability of an Abe win.

It now remains to be seen how his "beautiful country" plan will take shape. He's promised to deepen ties with the US while repairing relations with the PRC and the Koreas. Sounds good, but it's hard to tell what concrete approach he plans to take. He's been one of the highest-profile members of the Koizumi administration to make pilgrimages to the Yasukuni Shrine, which is hardly a way to endear oneself to the rest of East Asia. He's also in favor of amending the constitution, and there's little doubt he's referring to Article 9 (which contains the non-aggression clause). How far does he want to go in restoring military capability to Japan? No one's sure.

Economically, the guy's a wild card, too. Koizumi was an economic liberal from the get-go; he brought in Heizo Takenaka and, as much as possible, gave him carte blanche when it came to banking and finance reform. The bills for privatization of Japan Post ended up going through a predictable defanging process on the way to ratification, but Koizumi was willing to draw a line in the sand over them. Abe wants to control deflation, doesn't think the Allied military tribunal that sentenced Japanese war criminals (yeah, I'm begging the question there...you know what I mean) was just, and doesn't seem to want schoolchildren learning about comfort women during World War II.

Since it's not clear what his prime policy directives are, it's not clear what his deal-breakers are. He's obviously pretty nationalist by personal conviction, but he lacks the long-standing network of powerful connections to make it likely that he'll be able to push through controversial pet proposals. He doesn't seem to have the force of personality to convince people to put aside their doubts, but he will need allies--the LDP is not in the most secure position itself. We should begin to see pretty rapidly what will be the driving force behind his policies when his beliefs hit reality. You can bet that the rest of East Asia, in addition to the Japanese public, will be watching.

Thanks to everyone who's written to make sure things are okay. It's flattering to have smart, interesting people say they miss your writing. Unfortunately, extra-blog life is still pretty busy at the moment, and I'm still mentally kind of tired; so while I've been posting about things as they've caught my attention, I fear my recent output, such as it is, has been lame and distracted.

One thing I expected to be more interested in blathering about was the upcoming LDP election, but the twists and turns have turned out not to be particuarly interesting or revelatory. It's still looking like Abe. Maybe my dullness of mind is making me miss telling little allusions or suggestive turns of phrase, but it all sounds like bland campaign-speak to me. Abe wants to make Japan a great land for men, women, children, and the elderly, to live prosperous, healthy lives. Relations with the US, China, and the Koreas will be good. The pension system will be easy to understand. Birdies will sing and crocuses bloom in the mild sunshine. Daisies will spontaneously weave themselves into nosegays. Adorable fawns will munch on tender young leaves by the babbling brook, in the clear water of which you will see minnows playing merrily and blah blah blah.

No, I'm not really getting cynical. I'm just kind of tired, and I'm only following this stuff to the degree I am because that's what a responsible citizen resident does. Well, that and I'm a news junkie even on auto-pilot.

In any case, posts should become more frequent and (I hope) sharper within the next few weeks. In the interim, I was directed to a site called Japan for the Uninvited last week, which those who have a casual interest in Japan may find entertaining. The front page makes it look sex-obsessed, but there's actually quite a bit on a variety of cultural topics, little of it exhaustive but most of it delivered without that irksome ain't-these-Yamato-folks-weird? tone that you get from a lot of writing on Japan.

Since the Aneha scandal broke last year, federal officials have manifested a charming capacity for surprise. The latest shock:

The infrastructure ministry, stunned to learn that builders rarely bother to scrutinize architectural blueprints, will require that they do so for all new wooden homes to make sure the structures are quake-proof, officials said.

They said builders must study the design plans before construction starts after learning that such procedures are rarely observed these days.

The ministry was so shocked at the finding that it decided to rescind an exemption put in place 22 years ago to allow builders to skip such checks.

The move comes on the heels of recent disclosures about a Tokyo company that built and sold nearly 700 wooden homes with substandard earthquake resistance, officials said.

...

Even more surprising was a finding by a cooperative association for quake-proof strength on wooden buildings, whose members are mostly medium- and small-sized builders.

It said that 62 percent of about 24,000 wooden homes it surveyed were not strong enough to withstand an earthquake even though they were put up in or after 1981, when quake-proof standards were tightened.

Is it really that surprising that construction companies would skip a step they'd been expressly exempted from having to execute? After all, the Aneha scandal demonstrated that not even civil servants whose explicit responsibility was to verify structural calculations roused themselves to do so.

The wooden building problem is a big deal, of course. Despite the folksy belief that wood-framed buildings are less likely to collapse in earthquakes because their flexible joints and organic materials allow them to flop around in harmony with Gaia until she settles down--seriously, you hear that from people here all the time--the fact is that wooden buildings have to be very well engineered to be safe. And when they do collapse, they're more likely to tip over than are buildings of rebarred concrete, which makes them more dangerous for the neighbors.

The ROK reports (via the Nikkei) that the DPRK may be preparing for another missile test in December:

South Korea's Yonhap News Service reported on 3 September that there is a possibility that North Korea will launch more missiles in continuation of its 5 July tests. The report is from informed sources in the ROK government, which say that US-Korean information agencies captured [images] of several large transport vehicles moving in the area of the missile base at Gitdaeryeong, Gangwon Province.

...

According to the same report, a different information agency official stated, "Since we cannot dismiss the possibility that North Korea will time a missile launch to coincide with talks between the US and the ROK, we are paying close attention to movements in regions of suspected missile bases and nuclear experiments.

Reuters also reports that the PRC has managed to dig deep and find a little more neighborly feeling than is its wont lately:

Yonhap also reported China is likely to invite North Korean leader Kim Jong-il to visit this week in an effort to restore their relationship strained after North Korea's missile tests in July.

China is the North's main benefactor. Beijing voted in support of a U.N. Security Council resolution chastising Pyongyang for the missile tests.

Beijing was expected to convey its formal invitation to Kim early this week when its new ambassador to Pyongyang takes office, Yonhap reported, citing unnamed diplomatic sources in Seoul and Beijing.

The US is still refusing to meet with the DPRK one-on-one, and the DPRK is still refusing to resume the 6-party talks until economic sanctions are lifted.