The White Peril 白禍

Busy as hell here. I'm keeping up with the news as usual but don't feel as I had the mind space to write about it. One thing I noticed a few weeks ago that's become more relevant since this weekend's earthquake in Indonesia:

A simple and inexpensive method of minimizing earthquake damage by using plastic packing tape is being promoted by the Japan International Cooperation Agency through public demonstrations in quake-prone Pakistan.

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The method was developed by Prof. Kimiro Meguro of Tokyo University's Institute of Industrial Science.

The polypropylene, which has good tensile strength, is applied in a protective grid on the walls of buildings. The tape is then coated with plaster for protection against ultraviolet rays.

The method costs only a few thousand yen per house and does not significantly mar the appearance of the buildings.

In March, JICA demonstrated the packing tape engineering in an area of Pakistan devastated by an earthquake last year that left 70,000 people dead.

Local engineers and administrators were impressed, as reinforced miniature structures stood unharmed while other buildings collapsed after receiving an intensity-6 jolt in the demonstration.

"The engineering is suited to many countries since polypropylene tape is available around the world and is consistent in quality," said a spokesman for the Global Environment Department of JICA.

The tape and plaster don't magically turn stacks of brick or mud brick into shear walls, obviously. I'm assuming that in a lot of cases, tape-reinforced walls would survive a strong quake just long enough for residents to leave a house before it crumbled, but even that's a major innovation when you're dealing with simple materials and inadequate framing. It also means that less manpower and other resources needs to be expended on rescue operations. Assuming the method performs as well in reality as it does in the lab, it's the kind of practical idea--realistic about what locals can get their hands on and simple enough not to require a whole lot of tech knowledge--that could turn into genuinely useful foreign assistance.

It's unfortunate that there's no packing-tape bandage for inadequate transportation infrastructure and distribution management systems, which always prove to be the major problems after the immediate exigency of rescue fades. Along with other countries providing aid, Japan has an advance medical relief team and SDF unit in Java now to assess how best to deliver relief.

Okay, Jun'ichiro Koizumi isn't technically a lame duck because he's leaving his post as head of state by choice, but anyway....

The news outlets here, naturally, have been keeping close watch on how things are developing within the LDP, given that Prime Minister Koizumi plans to step down in September. Most of the updates are pretty boring, so I haven't been commenting on them. The Yomiuri has a nice summary of things to date up today, though:

Even members of the Mori faction, headed by former Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori, which has managed to maintain a semblance of unity, are having difficulty reaching a consensus on fielding one candidate in the election, indicating that the influence of the faction on their membership is declining.

At a press conference Friday, LDP General Council Chairman Fumio Kyuma said it was no longer in agreement with the recent trend for factions to choose candidates or take members' opinions into consideration to field a single candidate, referring to the failure of the Mori faction, the largest in the party, to reach an agreement on fielding a single candidate.

Chief Cabinet Secretary Shinzo Abe and former Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuo Fukuda of the Mori faction are seen as increasingly likely to run in the LDP presidential election, which could signal a split of the faction. But the Mori faction may not be the only faction that will have two candidates competing for the top LDP post.

Oddly, the article doesn't mention that Koizumi himself was once a member of the Mori faction; his relationship with his former mentor has been strained at times. (Mori ticked the Prime Minister off by commenting against the perceived rashness of his threat to dissolve the lower house last year over Japan Post privatization.) Koizumi has been signaling that he wants factional string-pulling to be kept to a minimum in the selection of the next party leader:

"It's no longer easy to unify (a factional candidate). The old LDP is gone," Koizumi told reporters Tuesday night. "There is no way to stop them if they wish to run."

The comment was widely viewed as a move to keep former Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori in check as Mori was moving to select a candidate who will have the unanimous support of his faction.

Both Abe and Fukuda are members of the Mori faction, to which Koizumi once belonged.

...

Mori had apparently wanted to avoid rivalry between Abe and Fukuda as it could split his faction, and thus chip away his clout.

Whatever you may think of Koizumi's policies, the man has charisma; few other politicians gunning for the LDP presidency and prime ministership do (though I've always liked Fukuda and was disappointed two years ago when scandal forced him to resign as Chief Cabinet Secretary). Many of Koizumi's brash promises of reform have been abandoned for the sake of political maneuvering, and those that have gone through have usually been watered down. There's a lot of political time between now and September, and whether Koizumi's approach will live on after him remains to be seen.

A well-intended proposal was introduced by some concerned citizens yesterday:

The annual number of persons who commit suicide having topped 30000 for seven years running, some non-profit organizations and families of suicides began on 13 May to collect signatures on a petition seeking the institution of a society-wide suicide prevention law, provisionally called "The Fundamental Measure Against Suicide." Signatures were collected in seven places nationwide: Akita, Tokyo, Kanagawa, Kyoto, Osaka, Fukuoka, and Saga.

The plan is to collect 30000 signatures, to match the annual number of suicides, and to submit the proposal to both houses of the Diet next month. Supporters plan to work on Diet members of both ruling and opposition parties to get the fundamental law enacted through the legislative process.

Tokyo wants to decrease the number of suicides by at least 5000 annually by 2015, and the proposed law would make suicide prevention a federal responsibility.

Given the Dr. Phil-ization of American culture, this may be hard for some of my compatriots to register, but psychotherapy is seriously underdeveloped in Japan. There are any number of reasons for that. Japanese people learn from a young age to brazen their way through sadness and depression without letting them show. Let alone talking about them directly. Let alone talking about them directly with someone who's not a family member or teacher. Of course, people will admit to feeling kind of blue or being in a bad mood every now and then, but people aren't taught to identify signs of serious trouble in either themselves or others.

Could some kind of federal initiative help with that? Possibly on that last point, in the sense of providing education and maybe more trained counselors in known pressure cookers such as schools. (I don't know that simply bringing more attention to the issue would help much; Japanese citizens are already plenty aware that they have a high rate of suicide, not all of which can be attributed to noble attempts to save the family or company honor after some massive screw-up happens.) For people to feel okay about seeking help, acculturation probably needs to change at the household and neighborhood level, and those sorts of shifts don't play to the federal government's strengths.

The governor of Okinawa has caved, at least provisionally:

Okinawa Gov. Keiichi Inamine on Thursday gave broad agreement to a government plan to relocate the U.S. Marine Corps' Futenma Air Station to Camp Schwab's coastal area as part of plans to realign U.S. bases in Japan.

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Inamine, however, stressed he had yet to fully approve the government plan, saying, "There is no change in the basic stance." He then said, "I'd like to make efforts to incorporate the prefecture's concerns in the discussion process with the central government," indicating the prefecture would again ask the central government to build a temporary heliport at Camp Schwab as a measure to alleviate the dangers connected with the Futenma base until the relocation is completed.

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Inamine initially opposed the government plan, but changed his position as he judged that it would be better to push the prefecture's demand for government subsidies and development programs ahead of Cabinet approval, sources said.

Of course: nothing like subsidies to motivate you to play ball, huh? Okinawa being Japan's least-rich prefecture, it has particular incentive to be pragmatic.

And now, for an exciting change of pace, a data leakage from a Self-Defense Force Internet site. Sheesh.

Instructional materials related to a surface-to-ship guided missile (the SSM-1) in the possession of the Ground Self-Defense Force were leaded over the Internet, it was learned on 12 April. The leak was reported to have occurred through file-sharing software called Share. The position of the GSDF's Ground Staff Office is that "no information that would cause security problems to arise was included."

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Included in the instructional materials were a system summary, information related to launch preparations, and the locations of deployed personnel units. Information with an impact on security, such as the range of the missile, was reported not to have been included.

The SDF is getting together a plan to prevent the recurrence [of such a leak], having just suffered the leak of classified information through file-sharing software such as Wini in April.

I feel much better.

This article in the English Asahi is promisingly headlined "Ministry gets tough on transport safety." Unfortunately, the truth appears to a little less cheering:

Currently, the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport issues suspensions only if transport companies accumulate a certain number of penalty points for employee traffic violations.

Not only does it take a large number of violations to draw a suspension, the ministry's shortage of inspectors means that many are not counted.

In most cases, suspensions are imposed only after serious violations, such as fatal traffic accidents, the sources said.

I added emphasis to that one clause above because it conveys one of the problems that lead to lax safety enforcement in other sectors (the nuclear power industry springs to mind) also: lots and lots of bureaucrats, very few inspectors out in the field. The Asahi reporter doesn't do much with it, instead shifting to a discussion of how more market competition after deregulation of transportation industries has encouraged companies to overwork and underprepare their vehicle operators.

Did deregulation contribute to the increase in the number of accidents? That's certainly plausible. It's hard to judge from the statistics provided by the Asahi, though. Restrictions on entrants to the trucking industry were relaxed in 1990; to bus and taxi in 2002. The increase in the numbers of accidents caused by different types of vehicles was measured over the period from 1995 to 2005. What correlates with what is difficult to divine.

But in any case, one of the main points of having a government at all is to protect citizens--from external enemies and, sadly, from compatriots who want to harm or exploit them. If existing safety regulations are being enforced slackly or arbitrarily, there are systemic problems that instituting tighter regulations probably won't address. On the other hand, the government may be more willing now to take a firm line in enforcing safety standards precisely because the increase in the number of competitors means it's not just dealing with established giants that have long-standing connections to a lot of federal agencies. Cozy relationships tend to facilitate cover-ups.

An interesting window on Japan's group-over-individual culture as it applies to the practice of medicine--I may have mentioned this before in a post related to health care before, but I don't remember--is that if you're gravely ill, they don't tell you what's wrong. They tell your family. It then becomes the responsibility of the ranking party (such as your eldest son) to tell you and take the lead in deciding what kind of treatment you should get. The Asahi has a new survey with some figures. Of course, surveys have to be swallowed cautiously, but the results here ring true:

The survey was conducted by a Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare research group in October and November 2004. Questionnaires were sent to 1,000 randomly selected hospitals with between 50 and 300 beds, since many terminal patients die in such hospitals rather than hospices or palliative care units. A total of 145 hospitals responded.

In only 45.9 percent of the reported cases, hospitals said they informed a terminal patient--generally considered someone with less than six months to live--what disease he or she was suffering from.

In contrast, they told the patients' families 95.8 percent of the time.

Occasionally (and not mentioned in this survey), doctors seem to lurch in the opposite direction and raise the possibility of truly frightening diagnoses without more than iffy information. Several years ago, a friend of mine returned from a trip to Thailand. She was weak and feverish and went in for a blood test. They told her she might have leukemia. She spent a few agonizing days before suddenly returning to her usual hale and hardy outdoorsy self. Must've been one of those things you pick up in Thailand. You know, oops.

Okay, so she was a foreigner, and maybe the doctor figured he was supposed to be as frank as possible. But a few months ago, a friend was told that he might have liver cancer. He was--and do you wonder?--seriously spooked. I couldn't get anything out of him but that his blood sugar level was elevated, according to the doctor. He went into the hospital for more tests. It turned out to be...well, I'm not sure what it is. He didn't use the word for "diabetes," but he definitely said it wasn't cancer. Given his former drinking habits, the shock may have been for the good; he's been sober since then. Still, his doctor gave him a real freak-out.

The Lucie Blackman case is well-known in Japan and England; US readers may not be familiar with it. Blackman was a British woman who quit her job as a BA flight attendant to take an under-the-table job at a hostess bar here in Tokyo. Several months later she was murdered, or killed accidentally in the course of a Mickey Finn, by a customer of the bar where she worked. This article from around a year later lays on the apocalyptic atmosphere a bit thick--as if Japan were a month away from sinking into Third World conditions--but it's a pretty comprehensive discussion of the development of the case. Blackman's family had to push hard and publicly to get police to investigate when she went missing.

The Asahi reports that Blackman's father helped launch a safety-minded service two years ago:

The idea bore fruit in July 2004 with the launch of Safety Text, through which users send details of their plans for a day to registered recipients back home.

Messages are stored for up to 24 hours, allowing users to cancel the text once they arrive at their destination. If they do not make contact, the alarm is raised.

Facial photographs and contact details that are stored in the system would be then transmitted to the police to ensure a prompt investigation.

"If Lucie had such a service, she might have wished to disclose that she was going off with this Japanese businessman (just in case)," Blackman said. "Then she might have been found in several hours, not seven months."

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As part of the campaign to raise awareness of personal safety, the trust has distributed "personal safety information packs" for travelers to more than 650 educational establishments across Britain. It also warns women to make sure their drinks aren't spiked with date-rape drugs.

That poor family. You can see how they'd look for solace in trying to prevent what happened to their daughter and sister from happening to anyone else. But I'm not sure a system such as Safety Text is likely to help much. There's an inherent risk in going back to the apartment of a lascivious-minded stranger, and no messaging system can exercise judgment on someone's behalf. Blackman, after all, called her roommate several times after meeting up with Joji Obara on the day he killed her. (I guess I should say "allegedly," but there appears to be next to no doubt.) She probably wasn't out of contact until very shortly before being drugged. And given that she hadn't been in Japan long, she might not have been entirely aware of which municipality she was in.

Besides, whatever information is given to police, they need to feel a reasonable need to act on it before they're going to go searching for someone. Blackman told her roommate she'd be back in about a half-hour and then didn't show up. If it were my friend, I'd be worried, but I doubt I'd be all that worried until the next morning. People in their early twenties do get sidetracked and end up staying out all night. The first serious cause for alarm was the phone call the next day saying Blackman had joined a cult, but it's pretty certain she was dead by then. The Safety Text system might have accelerated the recovery of her body, which is worthwhile in itself, but it seems unlikely to have prevented her death. (Given the wording Blackman's father used in that quotation, he may be aware of that himself.)