The White Peril 白禍

LDP Secretary General Hiroyuki Hosoda has offered Japan's best wishes to the states damaged by Hurricane Katrina and says that the government will investigate ways to help out.

Japan has a typhoon season, too, and Number 13, one of the first big ones of the year, is heading toward Okinawa. As always, no one can predict where the storm may veer off to as it changes course. If it keeps along the same path, it could dump 200 millimeters of rain on some islands in the area within 24 hours.

If this year is like last year, which we all hope it's not, this is just the beginning. One small thing to be thankful for (besides the fact that Atsushi's in a big population center with good building codes) is the way the news media here cover disasters. Well, that and the way people react to them--you don't catch Japanese people bellyaching that a storm was "overhyped" when all hell fails to break loose and deaths and damage are minimized.

Additionally, for all their flaws in other respects, NHK and the rest know how to cover the aftermath of a disaster without making themselves the center of it. Yesterday, I was watching the ever-repellant Aaron Brown interview Jeanne Meserve on CNN. Meserve had covered the storm from a parking garage above the Superdome and was relating how some of her camera and tech guys had gone along on search-and-rescue boats after the rains stopped. Though her voice sometimes broke as she described some of the things they'd seen, she was clearly steeling herself to give the facts to the extent that she knew them. Her self-discipline and reserve made what she was reporting that much more moving.

Then Brown had to go and spoil it by doing this oily routine: "You know, people often say that journalists are thrill-seekers, but you can tell by how Jeanne here is practically on the verge of sobbing that that's not the case. See? She's about to cry. Journalists are compassionate people. Get it? Oh, and Jeanne and I have known each other for years--why, I just called her 'Jeannie.' That's a diminutive. It means we're buddies. We're part of the same selfless humanitarian club, don't you know." To her credit, Meserve responded, "Well, sometimes we are thrill-seekers," and seemed to be trying to remind Brown tactfully that whatever stout-heartedness she was displaying might not be the real story. I don't know whether she was able to penetrate his force field of smugness, because I had to change the channel at that point.

Michele has had an idea that's uplifting rather than just smug: she's now collecting encouraging stories from the aftermath of the hurricane. No civilization can outwit Mother Nature all the time, and Katrina did plenty of horrifying things that we're going to be finding out over the next several weeks; but the ability of our society to deal with catastrophic blows in such a way as to address and minimize damage is really inspiring.

I don't want to sound like your kindergarten teacher, but for those who are Americans living in Tokyo, Hurricane Katrina's doings over the last few days served, I hope, as a reminder that you need to have your earthquake kit ready. If the big one comes, the police and fire departments will have their hands full rescuing the elderly and infirm; it would be nice not to pile the able-bodied and unprepared onto their workload. The US Embassy earthquake preparedness guide/checklist is always a good reference.

If you read Japanese, Hitachi will also have a helpful feature on its site up the day after tomorrow:

Residents later this week can find out what their homes would look like after a major earthquake by using a Web site that pinpoints danger spots in the event of a temblor.

The system, developed by a group led by Shigeyuki Okada, a professor at Nagoya Institute of Technology and an expert in earthquake disaster management, is designed to give residents ideas about preventive measures, such as rearranging furniture, against temblor-induced damage.

The service will be free.

Residents will simply enter such information as floor plans and sleeping areas, and the program will highlight the danger areas.

The system was tailored for ordinary use by Hitachi East Japan Solutions, a Sendai-based software engineering company.

The start of consultations on Hitachi East's Web site is scheduled for Sept. 1, the anniversary of the 1923 Great Kanto Earthquake. Earthquake-related drills around the country and reminders about disaster preparedness are expected on that day.

The site will allow you to configure a model of your house based on room layout, furniture placement, and ages of household members. Feed them in, and the site will give you the most obviously vulnerable points in the house. Sounds pretty cool.

Japan says Iraq has asked it to maintain its non-combat SDF presence in the reconstruction past the current December end date:

Iraq has asked Japan to extend its noncombat mission of troops in the southern part of the country beyond its expiration in December, Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi said Monday.

Koizumi, in a debate with the leaders of five other major political parties in Japan, said that the government had not yet made a decision about whether it would extend the mission, which is opposed by many in Japan.

"Japan has received an official request to extend its presence in Iraq," Koizumi said.

"So we will continue to monitor the situation there, and make a comprehensive decision on the issue based on realities within the country, the opinions of the Iraqi people, U.S.-Japan relations, and Japan's responsibilities in the international community," the prime minister said.

Japan has about 550 troops in the southern city of Samawah on a humanitarian mission to purify water, rebuild schools and other tasks.

The LDP has women candidates at the top of its lists for 7 of Japan's 11 proportional representation zones:

In the Tokyo Bloc, the top candidate is Sophia University professor Kuniko Inoguchi. In the Tokai Bloc, Satsuki Katayama, a former Ministry of Finance division director, tops the list, with culinary researcher Makiko Fujino, and private economist Yukari Sato second and third in line, respectively. In the Kinki Bloc, journalist Mitue Kondo, and in the Kyushu Bloc sitting Diet member Kyoko Nishikawa, are at the top.

There are 57 candidates registered only for proportional representation seats and 180 registered for both proportional representation seats and regular district seats. One gets th e feeling--I've been waiting for someone from the LDP to come out and say this, but surprisingly, I haven't heard it yet--that the Koizumi candidate wants its anticipated victory over its enemies to be that much more decisive psychologically if it can be played as a bunch of women beating the old boys' network.

Prime Minister Koizumi is taking a modest view of the significance of his efforts to privatize Japan Post:

Prime Minister Koizumi has christened his recent dissolution of the House of Representatives the "Japan Post-Galileo Dissolution," borrowing the name of Galileo Galilei, the Italian physicist who advanced the idea that the Earth was not the center of the universe.

In response, Shizuka Kamei, a member of the group of Representatives who banded together to vote against the Japan Post privatization bill, shot back, "That guy? He's the Ptolemaic!" What do Galileo scholars think about all of this?

"As a researcher, I wouldn't trot out Galileo comparisons too lightly--that's my unvarnished opinion," said Professor Ichiro Tanaka, a science and technology historian at in the graduate department of natural science research at Kanazawa University and author of Galileo.

The Japanese words here, incidentally, are 地動説 (chidousetsu: "Earth" + "moves" + "argument" --> "heliocentric theory") and 天動説 (tendousetu: "sky" + "moves" + "argument" --> "geocentric theory").

So--is Koizumi about to be excommunicated? Whatever outcome you want from the election, you can, of course, find a poll that supports it. The Yomiuri has this summary of where things stand at this point, which should cheer supporters of the Koizumi cabinet:

"If the LDP continues to do well, we might well end up with fewer than 150 seats out of a total 480," a senior DPJ member said.

"The LDP's divisions over postal reform, led us to believe we were on the eve of grabbing power. But if we lose by a big margin this election, it'll be us, not them, that will be split," he admitted.

The DPJ's fate, as in previous elections, is believed to lie with floating voters. Since the party has long depended on them, DPJ members know that such voters are fickle at best.

Koizumi and the LDP have insisted postal reform is the dominant campaign issue. "We'd like to get pensions back into the limelight. We'll ask people, 'Which is more important, postal services or pensions?' and then win back their attention and support," a senior DPJ member said.

A Yomiuri Shimbun poll Friday found the DPJ had an edge of nearly three percentage points over the LDP among floating voters.

Asked which party they would vote in the election, 11.5 percent of those with no party affiliation said they would vote for the DPJ while 9.2 percent said they would vote for the LDP.

In a Yomiuri survey conducted on Aug. 9, the DPJ was ahead of the LDP by 10.9 percent to 5.6 percent. But the most recent poll, released on Aug. 19, found the LDP ahead of DPJ, 12.5 percent to 11.2 percent.

Of course, there are still two weeks until the election, so there will be plenty more blustering and polling between now and then.

It's interesting that that DPJ guy was talking about potential rifts in his own party. Just today there was this exchange:

LDP Secretary General Tsutomu Takebe said that, assuming the ruling coalition maintained its majority in the House of Representatives, "there will inevitably be a major shift in the political landscape, given that there are many in the DPJ who also support Japan Post privatization." He indicated that his perception was that such developments could cause the DPJ to split. Responding, DPJ leader Katsuya Okada countered, "That's an extremely rude thing to say. Impossible!"

The DPJ also pointed out, naturally, that the LDP also has members who didn't go along party lines.

Much is being made of the fact that the LDP is focusing obsessively on Japan Post privatization, with the opposition parties figuring they can use it to their advantage and win voters over by shifting the discussion to other issues. Perhaps. Not all of Koizumi's policies have been popular, and the communists and social democrats, for example, are trying to capitalize on the possibility that Article 9 of the constitution could be amended to allow for collective self-defense and on the increasing number of workers without positions as regular company employees.

The LDP has some potential tricks up its sleeve, though. It's use of "assassin" candidates is described by the Mainichi here:

The LDP is reportedly planning to place its high profile candidates, referred to in Japanese as "shikaku," or "assassins," high on the party's proportional representation list, basically ensuring them victory in the election.

But candidates standing for re-election to the Lower House, who are likely to face a tough battle in the election, are complaining that the preferential treatment of such candidates is unfair.

The LDP has pitted the high-profile candidates against rival candidates opposed to the postal privatization bills promoted by Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi.

The party's proportional representation list will be released on Aug. 29. If the "assassins" are placed high on the list as expected, the party's leadership is likely to come under fire from party members seeking re-election.

There have been plenty of complaints that the LDP's funkier high-profile candidates are inexperienced politically; pushing them to the top of the proportional representation roster (the list of districts is here in Japanese, BTW) is seen as a kick in the teeth to party loyalists who supported Japan Post privatization but may not win seats in their individual districts. The proportional representation list is to be released tomorrow, so we'll see what it looks like.

BTW, proportional representation, for those who find the Mainichi explanation confusing, involves setting aside 180 lower house seats and 98 upper house seats to be divided among 11 zones (large regions of Japan such as Hokkaido, Tohoku, and Tokyo) rather than little individual districts. Voters select a party to get the proportional representation seats for their zones; each party gets the same proportion of seats as it got votes. The idea is to keep parties that have significant support but didn't win any seats with individual candidates from being shut out of the Diet entirely.

Prime Minister Koizumi is taking a modest view of the significance of his efforts to privatize Japan Post:

Prime Minister Koizumi has christened his recent dissolution of the House of Representatives the "Japan Post-Galileo Dissolution," borrowing the name of Galileo Galilei, the Italian physicist who advanced the idea that the Earth was not the center of the universe.

In response, Shizuka Kamei, a member of the group of Representatives who banded together to vote against the Japan Post privatization bill, shot back, "That guy? He's the Ptolemaic!" What do Galileo scholars think about all of this?

"As a researcher, I wouldn't trot out Galileo comparisons too lightly--that's my unvarnished opinion," said Professor Ichiro Tanaka, a science and technology historian at in the graduate department of natural science research at Kanazawa University and author of Galileo.

The Japanese words here, incidentally, are 地動説 (chidousetsu: "Earth" + "moves" + "argument" --> "heliocentric theory") and 天動説 (tendousetu: "sky" + "moves" + "argument" --> "geocentric theory").

So--is Koizumi about to be excommunicated? Whatever outcome you want from the election, you can, of course, find a poll that supports it. The Yomiuri has this summary of where things stand at this point, which should cheer supporters of the Koizumi cabinet:

"If the LDP continues to do well, we might well end up with fewer than 150 seats out of a total 480," a senior DPJ member said.

"The LDP's divisions over postal reform, led us to believe we were on the eve of grabbing power. But if we lose by a big margin this election, it'll be us, not them, that will be split," he admitted.

The DPJ's fate, as in previous elections, is believed to lie with floating voters. Since the party has long depended on them, DPJ members know that such voters are fickle at best.

Koizumi and the LDP have insisted postal reform is the dominant campaign issue. "We'd like to get pensions back into the limelight. We'll ask people, 'Which is more important, postal services or pensions?' and then win back their attention and support," a senior DPJ member said.

A Yomiuri Shimbun poll Friday found the DPJ had an edge of nearly three percentage points over the LDP among floating voters.

Asked which party they would vote in the election, 11.5 percent of those with no party affiliation said they would vote for the DPJ while 9.2 percent said they would vote for the LDP.

In a Yomiuri survey conducted on Aug. 9, the DPJ was ahead of the LDP by 10.9 percent to 5.6 percent. But the most recent poll, released on Aug. 19, found the LDP ahead of DPJ, 12.5 percent to 11.2 percent.

Of course, there are still two weeks until the election, so there will be plenty more blustering and polling between now and then.

It's interesting that that DPJ guy was talking about potential rifts in his own party. Just today there was this exchange:

LDP Secretary General Tsutomu Takebe said that, assuming the ruling coalition maintained its majority in the House of Representatives, "there will inevitably be a major shift in the political landscape, given that there are many in the DPJ who also support Japan Post privatization." He indicated that his perception was that such developments could cause the DPJ to split. Responding, DPJ leader Katsuya Okada countered, "That's an extremely rude thing to say. Impossible!"

The DPJ also pointed out, naturally, that the LDP also has members who didn't go along party lines.

Much is being made of the fact that the LDP is focusing obsessively on Japan Post privatization, with the opposition parties figuring they can use it to their advantage and win voters over by shifting the discussion to other issues. Perhaps. Not all of Koizumi's policies have been popular, and the communists and social democrats, for example, are trying to capitalize on the possibility that Article 9 of the constitution could be amended to allow for collective self-defense and on the increasing number of workers without positions as regular company employees.

The LDP has some potential tricks up its sleeve, though. It's use of "assassin" candidates is described by the Mainichi here:

The LDP is reportedly planning to place its high profile candidates, referred to in Japanese as "shikaku," or "assassins," high on the party's proportional representation list, basically ensuring them victory in the election.

But candidates standing for re-election to the Lower House, who are likely to face a tough battle in the election, are complaining that the preferential treatment of such candidates is unfair.

The LDP has pitted the high-profile candidates against rival candidates opposed to the postal privatization bills promoted by Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi.

The party's proportional representation list will be released on Aug. 29. If the "assassins" are placed high on the list as expected, the party's leadership is likely to come under fire from party members seeking re-election.

There have been plenty of complaints that the LDP's funkier high-profile candidates are inexperienced politically; pushing them to the top of the proportional representation roster (the list of districts is here in Japanese, BTW) is seen as a kick in the teeth to party loyalists who supported Japan Post privatization but may not win seats in their individual districts. The proportional representation list is to be released tomorrow, so we'll see what it looks like.

BTW, proportional representation, for those who find the Mainichi explanation confusing, involves setting aside 180 lower house seats and 98 upper house seats to be divided among 11 zones (large regions of Japan such as Hokkaido, Tohoku, and Tokyo) rather than little individual districts. Voters select a party to get the proportional representation seats for their zones; each party gets the same proportion of seats as it got votes. The idea is to keep parties that have significant support but didn't win any seats with individual candidates from being shut out of the Diet entirely.

They haven't ironed out all the kinks in Japan's spy satellite program:

Japan has postponed the launch of a third spy satellite intended to keep an eye on communist North Korea for at least six months due to a technical glitch, a report said Thursday.

Japan launched two spy satellites in March 2003 amid concerns about the security threat posed by North Korea, which claims to have nuclear weapons.

The third was set to be launched this fiscal year, which ends in March 2006, but a government committee postponed it because of a computer chip problem. At least six months are needed to replace the chips and test new ones, Kyodo News agency said. Officials were unavailable to confirm the report late Thursday.

...

Critics say sending spy satellites into space goes against a long-standing Japanese policy of conducting only nonmilitary space missions.

Yes, it does, but that just means it goes against a long-standing Japanese policy of mistaking sub-standard defense for saintly non-aggression. No harm in changing that.

Nine years ago today, I landed at Narita Airport for the first time. I had no idea it was the first day of the rest of my life. I was originally supposed to be here for a year-long language program and then return to grad school in New York. Plans change!

Japan's proceeding with its SST plan:

Japan's space agency plans to launch an arrow-shaped airplane at twice the speed of sound high over the Australian outback as early as next month in a crucial test of the country's push to develop a supersonic successor to the retired Concorde.

The test follows a three-year hiatus since the first experimental flight of the unmanned aircraft, dubbed the next-generation supersonic transport, prematurely separated from its booster rocket and crashed into the desert.

"We've made some improvements so that won't happen again," Takaaki Akuto, a spokesman for the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, said Tuesday in Tokyo. "This is a pretty important test."

A successful mission will pave the way for additional experiments as JAXA aims to develop a plane that can carry 300 passengers at Mach 2, or twice the speed of sound, making the run from Tokyo to Los Angeles in about four hours.

The aircraft is being developed in a partnership with France, whose history in the way of making profitable supersonic jets is not what you would call promising. But let's just leave that aside and dream of flying to LA in four hours.

Four hours! Just think of what you could do with the seven hours you'd save that way: start recovering from your jet lag early...spend more time with your friends...catch a domestic flight to New York and end up spending less time in the air than you would have spent flying Narita-JFK on a 747...write and proofread the great American novel. It would be like winning the chronolottery. Of course, it's likely to be super-expensive, if it happens at all, so for now we're still stuck trying to convince ourselves that 12 hours of imprisonment is great because it's the perfect opportunity to reread War and Peace without distraction.

This editorial from the Nikkei raises good, albeit depressing, questions about the plans the two major parties have for Japan Post:

The DPJ plan would maintain Japan Post as a semi-public corporation but lower the cap on savings account balances for a single depositor from the current 10 million yen to 7 million yen by next year, and from there down to 5 million yen over several years, so that the approximate 220 trillion yen now held in postal savings would shrink by half. There would also be some sort of method used to decrease the number of new policyholders for insurance. The party touts its plan as a way of realizing a more definite transfer of capital from the post offices to private banks and insurance companies than the LDP plan would: "A change in the flow of capital from public to private."

That's one way of thinking, but it leaves more than one question open. If the amount of capital contracts greatly, not all of the 26000 regular employees of Japan Post will be needed, but the DPJ plan doesn't say anything clear about personnel reductions. The party says, "Personnel levels will, of course, be adjusted as more workers reach mandatory retirement age," but to the extent that the Japan Post unions and other organizations, which are antipathetic to personnel reductions, are expected to form a layer of support for the party, the plan lacks persuasiveness without concrete proposals for personnel management.

The DPJ plan maintains Japan Post as a semi-governmental corporation but says that it will investigate the full spectrum of options, including integration with federal financial institutions. Privatization is also included among the options. However, if the option of not privatizing Japan Post outright is not selected for now, then there will be no choice but to use money from the profitable deposit and insurance divisions to make up for losses by the postal services division if it once again becomes unprofitable as trends such as e-mail cut into its business. In extreme cases, it's possible that tax money will need to be used to rescue postal services.

Of course, it's not a sure thing that the LDP's privatization plan is going to bring us salvation, either:

On the other hand, the privatization bill to be resubmitted by the LDP would split postal services, savings, and insurance into three separate corporations, then establish a fourth for counter services that would absorb the majority of current post office employees. A holding company would manage these four organizations. Government guarantees on postal savings and insurance would be abolished.

This is privatization in outline, but as a result of compromises with the former Mori faction, added provisions mean that in substance, the three divisions will continue to function as a single monolithic body, and furthermore, and significant government interests will remain.

For example, the holding company is a public entity for which the government will provide more than a third of its capital. On top of that, the holding company will be able to continue to hold shares in the savings and insurance corporations even after March 2017, when the transition to privatization is to be completed. That means there is a real worry the flow of capital from public to private hands will not be effected: government interests in the organizations' financial operations, including where capital is allocated, will remain all along.

This isn't new--I've discussed everything in the above paragraphs in scattered posts from time to time, but it's a good summary.

There was an earthquake in Niigata this morning--M5.0 and also a strong 5 on the JMA scale. Reported damage sounds like little more than a few broken windows, but I'm sure the residents are jumpy after last fall's series of destructive quakes. In Japanese terms, Niigata, like Kobe, is not considered a very seismically active area, so preparations are somewhat sketchy, though I'm sure they're a lot better now than they were last year at this time.

I probably would have missed this had Susanna not shot me an e-mail about it: Roger Simon is in Japan and is posting photos and impressions of his stay in Nikko. Worth reading. One thing he said is heartbreakingly true:

English is only sparingly spoken here [at the inn where he's staying] and all of the other patrons are Japanese. They seem to be more in search of Old Japan than even this gaijin.

Yes. There are Japanophile Westerners who get all woozy over "traditional Japanese culture" in a way that makes it seem they care for nothing beyond having somewhere quaint and exotic and Zen and Oriental to go in order to fill in their own spiritual void. But you don't have to adopt that condescending perspective to see that the Japanese people's relationship with modernization is complex and not as resolutely amicable as it's often made to seem.

Tokyo is a striking city--I've lived here for almost a decade and love it to pieces, but let's face it: no place on Earth brings the fug like Tokyo. A lot of it really does look like Bladerunner. What Tokyo has going for it, however, is that it's the largest and most kinetic megalopolis in the developed world. Its expansive affluence and churning, insane vitality mean you don't mind the drabness so much.

Where the ugliness of modern Japan really makes you want to weep is in places such as Kyoto. Nothing quite prepares you for when you alight at the new Kyoto Station, prepared to immerse yourself in one of the most legendarily beautiful cities in the world...and realize that you're inside a big modernist glass box of monumental, almost unimaginable hideousness. Across the street from the glass box is the unfortunate Kyoto Tower Hotel, which looks like a giant toilet brush in its stand. The downtown is full of the unprepossessing stucco-ish and tiled building facades you can see anywhere in Japan. Of course, the temples and a few select old neighborhoods really are as gorgeous as you expect. Atsushi and I were there in the fall of 2001 when the leaves were just reaching their peak. It was magical--until you came back down the mountain into the city. Then you may as well have been in Nagoya.

Japanese people realize that the way they've modernized, impressive as it is, has not produced a happy medium. Unfortunately, building codes and public works projects don't show much sign of changing, and the architects who have found imaginative ways to integrate old-fashioned Japanese ideas of structure with modern technology and materials are way outnumbered by those who are content to design big, characterless boxes. Or who go headlong in the other direction and generate designs for buildings that are so trippy and "experimental" as to be user-unfriendly.

A lot of the "traditional" Japanese inns have the same visible air conditioning units and formica furniture and artificial fibers that you see elsewhere here. What they have going for them are the water and rock- and cedar-lined baths. And they're not as crowded as the commuter trains. I'm not sure Tanizaki would have approved, but that's about as close to nature as life gets for most people these days.

Why is it that the names of new political parties always sound so hard-socialist? The party just formed by several key Japan Post opponents, dropped by the LDP for their rebelliousness, will be called the 国民新党 (kokumin shintô: "citizens' new party").

On the bright side, with so few members, everyone gets an executive post:

Former House of Representatives Speaker Tamisuke Watanuki, who heads the party, made the announcement at a press conference held late afternoon.

The new party comprises five members, including Shizuka Kamei, former chairman of the LDP's Policy Research Council, who spearheaded opposition to Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's postal reform drive.

Hisaoki Kamei, former National Land Agency director general, took the post of secretary general.

House of Councillors member Kensei Hasegawa, another LDP member who defied party executives to vote against the postal bills, also joined the party.

The four rebels left the LDP earlier in the day.

Another upper house member, Hideaki Tamura, left the Democratic Party of Japan to join the new party.

"We considered it inappropriate that the prime minister submitted the bills in a hasty and high-handed manner," Watanuki said at the press conference.

"We're strongly resentful that LDP executives decided not to support the 37 party members who voted against the bills in the lower house, and to field rival candidates against the opponents," he added.

"I stood up [to form a new party] since I can't just sit still and watch" the LDP executives' strategy to field alternative candidates, Watanuki said. "We'd like to become the vanguards of preventing such backroom politics."

Backroom politics? There's always some of that, of course. If anything, though, I think that most people's perception was that Koizumi and his fellow travelers were so upfront about demanding loyalty without necessarily making it clear what Japan Post privatization was concretely going to accomplish.

Prime Minister Koizumi, kami love him, did not mince words over the news:

"I think it's good for them to set up a new party to disseminate their policy, because unlike LDP members [Cold, man!--SRK], they're against postal privatization," Koizumi said at the LDP headquarters in Tokyo.

But when asked about the possibility of postelection cooperation with the new party, he said, "As the LDP and New Komeito will win a majority, we can't cooperate with people who are opposed to postal privatization."

...

The Democratic Party of Japan, the main opposition party, has now posted its election platform. Japan Post is the issue that's getting all the attention, but it shouldn't be. There's always a real possibility that the LDP coalition could lose. If so, here's what we're in for (drastically summarized and leaving out some bullet points entirely):

Japan-US relations: The platform emphasizes that Japan's important strategic relationship with the US does not make it a vassal state and that it retains its autonomy. It also asserts that based on changes in the Asian "strategic environment," US military presence now in Okinawa should be first redistributed within and then moved out of Japan. It also wants Japanese law to be in effect at US military facilities and crime suspects to be turned over to the Japanese courts before being charged.

The SDF: The platform states that the SDF should be restructured within two years to be able to cope with new threats such as cyberwarfare, ballistic missiles, and terrorism. It also goes out of its way to mention defense of various disputed island chains.

The SDF deployment in Iraq: The DPJ proposes to bring back the non-combat SDF forces now in Iraq by December. The Japanese contribution to the reconstruction would take the form of ODA activity.

The building of a relationship of mutual trust with the PRC: After this is achieved (I'd love to see the DPJ describe how), Japan and China can start to systematize their cooperation on things like energy consumption, currency valuation, maritime territory, and security.

Relationships between Japan and the ROK or other Asian states: The platform proposes mostly free trade agreements, though it also mentions Japan's role as a consultant on democratization, conservation, crime reduction, education, and energy policy.

The DPRK: There's no pretense to building a relationship of mutual trust here. The DPJ supports attempts to denuclearize North Korea through the ongoing 6-party talks. Regarding the issue of Japanese abductees, it proposes possible measures such as the blocking of entry into Japanese ports for DPRK-registered vessels. Also, with the number of refugees from the DPRK showing no sign of dropping off, the DPJ proposes increased maritime security.

A global warming tax: ¥3000 per ton of CO₂ emitted

Social insurance: The operative slogan is "fair, transparent, and sustainable." There's quite a bit of detail here--it's a big issue in Japan--but there are a few major proposals. The DPJ wants to consolidate the various pension systems to eliminate inequities, such as by eliminating the special pension system for Diet members and making them pay into the same black hole reservoir as the rest of us. Married couples would be regarded as paying into the same pension account and each be considered entitled to half. The national health service would be reformed to facilitate such exotica as seeking a second opinion. The unemployment system would make it easier for younger workers to get career counseling and assistance, and the labor laws would be brought more in line with international standards. This includes--you have to love Japan--compulsory interviews by physicians for workers with long shifts. This is presumably to make sure they don't drop dead from overwork, which is no longer seen as a contribution to company and family honor.

On farm, trade, and public works policy, the DPJ is generally opposed to privatization and the abolishment of subsidies; however, it does propose a decrease in the number of boondoggles (who doesn't?) and support the spinning off of authority for the disbursement of funds to local governments.

Why is it that the names of new political parties always sound so hard-socialist? The party just formed by several key Japan Post opponents, dropped by the LDP for their rebelliousness, will be called the 国民新党 (kokumin shintô: "citizens' new party").

On the bright side, with so few members, everyone gets an executive post:

Former House of Representatives Speaker Tamisuke Watanuki, who heads the party, made the announcement at a press conference held late afternoon.

The new party comprises five members, including Shizuka Kamei, former chairman of the LDP's Policy Research Council, who spearheaded opposition to Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's postal reform drive.

Hisaoki Kamei, former National Land Agency director general, took the post of secretary general.

House of Councillors member Kensei Hasegawa, another LDP member who defied party executives to vote against the postal bills, also joined the party.

The four rebels left the LDP earlier in the day.

Another upper house member, Hideaki Tamura, left the Democratic Party of Japan to join the new party.

"We considered it inappropriate that the prime minister submitted the bills in a hasty and high-handed manner," Watanuki said at the press conference.

"We're strongly resentful that LDP executives decided not to support the 37 party members who voted against the bills in the lower house, and to field rival candidates against the opponents," he added.

"I stood up [to form a new party] since I can't just sit still and watch" the LDP executives' strategy to field alternative candidates, Watanuki said. "We'd like to become the vanguards of preventing such backroom politics."

Backroom politics? There's always some of that, of course. If anything, though, I think that most people's perception was that Koizumi and his fellow travelers were so upfront about demanding loyalty without necessarily making it clear what Japan Post privatization was concretely going to accomplish.

Prime Minister Koizumi, kami love him, did not mince words over the news:

"I think it's good for them to set up a new party to disseminate their policy, because unlike LDP members [Cold, man!--SRK], they're against postal privatization," Koizumi said at the LDP headquarters in Tokyo.

But when asked about the possibility of postelection cooperation with the new party, he said, "As the LDP and New Komeito will win a majority, we can't cooperate with people who are opposed to postal privatization."

...

The Democratic Party of Japan, the main opposition party, has now posted its election platform. Japan Post is the issue that's getting all the attention, but it shouldn't be. There's always a real possibility that the LDP coalition could lose. If so, here's what we're in for (drastically summarized and leaving out some bullet points entirely):

Japan-US relations: The platform emphasizes that Japan's important strategic relationship with the US does not make it a vassal state and that it retains its autonomy. It also asserts that based on changes in the Asian "strategic environment," US military presence now in Okinawa should be first redistributed within and then moved out of Japan. It also wants Japanese law to be in effect at US military facilities and crime suspects to be turned over to the Japanese courts before being charged.

The SDF: The platform states that the SDF should be restructured within two years to be able to cope with new threats such as cyberwarfare, ballistic missiles, and terrorism. It also goes out of its way to mention defense of various disputed island chains.

The SDF deployment in Iraq: The DPJ proposes to bring back the non-combat SDF forces now in Iraq by December. The Japanese contribution to the reconstruction would take the form of ODA activity.

The building of a relationship of mutual trust with the PRC: After this is achieved (I'd love to see the DPJ describe how), Japan and China can start to systematize their cooperation on things like energy consumption, currency valuation, maritime territory, and security.

Relationships between Japan and the ROK or other Asian states: The platform proposes mostly free trade agreements, though it also mentions Japan's role as a consultant on democratization, conservation, crime reduction, education, and energy policy.

The DPRK: There's no pretense to building a relationship of mutual trust here. The DPJ supports attempts to denuclearize North Korea through the ongoing 6-party talks. Regarding the issue of Japanese abductees, it proposes possible measures such as the blocking of entry into Japanese ports for DPRK-registered vessels. Also, with the number of refugees from the DPRK showing no sign of dropping off, the DPJ proposes increased maritime security.

A global warming tax: ¥3000 per ton of CO₂ emitted

Social insurance: The operative slogan is "fair, transparent, and sustainable." There's quite a bit of detail here--it's a big issue in Japan--but there are a few major proposals. The DPJ wants to consolidate the various pension systems to eliminate inequities, such as by eliminating the special pension system for Diet members and making them pay into the same black hole reservoir as the rest of us. Married couples would be regarded as paying into the same pension account and each be considered entitled to half. The national health service would be reformed to facilitate such exotica as seeking a second opinion. The unemployment system would make it easier for younger workers to get career counseling and assistance, and the labor laws would be brought more in line with international standards. This includes--you have to love Japan--compulsory interviews by physicians for workers with long shifts. This is presumably to make sure they don't drop dead from overwork, which is no longer seen as a contribution to company and family honor.

On farm, trade, and public works policy, the DPJ is generally opposed to privatization and the abolishment of subsidies; however, it does propose a decrease in the number of boondoggles (who doesn't?) and support the spinning off of authority for the disbursement of funds to local governments.

My.

sainted.

aunt.

Muneo Suzuki, a former Lower House member of the ruling party who is appealing a bribery conviction, on Thursday launched a new political party that he hopes will win him a seat in the Sept 11 election.

Suzuki, 57, said his Sapporo-based Shinto daichi (New party, big land) was planning to win at least two Hokkaido seats in the election.

He said the party, which was named by popular singer Chiharu Matsuyama-a long-time friend of Suzuki's-to symbolize Hokkaido's vast area, would stand for the socially disadvantaged.

"I want the party to be one for the weak and those with no power," Suzuki said. "Politics should work for those who are disadvantaged or regions that are underdeveloped."

The party is planning to come out guns blazing against bureaucratic intervention in politics. It will also campaign to secure Ainu rights as well as the construction of a pipeline to directly import natural gas and petroleum from Russia to the northern island.

Muneo Suzuki was sentenced to two years in prison and millions of yen in fines for...well, I don't think he was charged with breaking and entering, but just about everything else was in there: bribery, bid-rigging, perjury, and fraud among them. His idea of having politics work for "regions that are underdeveloped," naturally, is funneling money into boondoggles that have no potential users. The best that can be said of him is that he was considered a scourge of bureaucrats, but you have to be scraping big old splinters from the bottom of the barrel to come up with that one.

The Nikkei editorials included one that opened thus this morning:

The occurrence of a severe earthquake makes the blood run cold and always makes it hit home that, anywhere at any time in Japan, there is the danger of a catastrophic earthquake. We all have the memory of times when we were jolted into fear by the shaking of the earth--that memory gives us an opportunity to review point by point our earthquake preparations both at work and at home.

Yesterday, a fairly serious earthquake struck; its focus was off the coast of Miyagi Prefecture. Its highest surface intensity was a weak 6 JMA, recorded in southern Miyagi Prefecture. Its magnitude is estimated at M7.2. There were serious injuries and damage to buildings. The shaking was registered over a large range of the Japanese Archipelago, and the rattled feeling it produced was registered by a correspondingly large number of people.

The Japanese expression used here isn't "makes the blood run cold," actually--it's 肝を冷やす (himo wo hiyasu: "chills the liver"). If there's anyone reading from Japan, this might be a good time to plug once again the US Embassy's earthquake preparedness checklist.

This is 180 degrees opposite from what was being said last week, though rapid changes in strategy are themselves hardly surprising at this juncture:

On 16 August, LDP legislators who opposed the Japan Post privatization bill--including Tamisuke Watanuki, Shizuka Kamei, and Hisaoki Kamei--met in a Tokyo hotel and agreed on the broad outlines for the formation of a new party centered on current members of the lower house who were part of the opposition. After hammering out the party's name and fundamental policy platform, they plan to announce [its formation] on 17 August. Most such members have already firmed up plans to run [in the snap election] unaffiliated, so the new party is likely to have a small-scale start.

For its part, the DPJ released its lower house manifesto yesterday:

On 16 July, the Democratic Party of Japan released its lower house election manifesto (campaign promises). On the subject of Japan Post reform, pitched as the party's major point of contention with Prime Minister Jun'ichiro Koizumi, it states that postal savings and insurance "will be reduced to a reasonable scale." Limits on the amount that could be deposited in postal savings would be reduced in stages starting in 2006. Reform to centralize all pensions would be executed by 2008. The battle [of campaign platforms], starting with that over Japan Post and pension reforms, will be beginning in earnest as the parties gear up for the 11 September election.

...

The reduction of limits on postal savings deposits is designed to effect a "reduction of public financing." Among the provisions: capitalization through postal savings accounts (which now hold a total of ¥330 trillion) will be halved within 8 years by reducing the per-depositor limit from ¥10 million to ¥7 million, then over the subsequent several years to ¥50 million.

"Public financing" refers, of course, to the investment of citizens' savings in pet government projects, many of which are of questionable public utility. There's no word on whether the DPJ plans to address organizational inefficiency at Japan Post, but then, even the LDP caved when it came to reductions in the number of outlets and personnel.

Today's earthquake in Miyagi Prefecture appears to have caused about 60 injuries of various levels of severity. The magnitude estimate has been revised to M7.2, which is comparable to that of the Great Hanshin Earthquake ten years ago. The focus of today's quake was buried deeper, though, and the JMA rating was correspondingly lower than the 7 given to the Kobe earthquake. Sadly but fortunately, every big earthquake is instructive for engineers; Sendai's shut-off systems for gas and water mains were improved after the Kobe quake, a move that was credited with minimizing damage in the region's last two major quakes and probably also had its effect today.

The way we felt this morning's earthquake in Tokyo was as gentle rattling for about 20 seconds and then more noticeable swaying. It seemed to last forever, and though it wasn't really strong, it made a good deal of noise.

It was more serious elsewhere: M6.8 at the focus and a weak 6 on the JMA scale at the epicenter in southern Miyagi Prefecture. They're reporting quite a few injuries in the major city of Sendai, though it's only an hour after the quake and details are few. Sendai, fortunately in a sense, is in an earthquake hot zone. It's as well prepared as you can be for a big shake-up. Its last major quake was two years ago, but it's still waiting (if that's the word) for the next Miyagi-oki monster--the region gets hit with one once every several decades. If anyone's reading from around Sendai, stay safe.

The LDP may pursue an aggressive strategy regarding Japan Post privatization:

The Liberal Democratic Party hopes to pass the postal privatization bills during a special Diet session to be convened after the House of Representatives election if the ruling coalition retains its majority, sources close to the party said Sunday.

The party plans to resubmit the bills, which were rejected by the House of Councillors, to a special Diet session for an extended debate on the bills, the sources said.

It is unusual for bills to be debated at a special Diet session.

With Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi having touted the postal privatization bills as the key election issue, the LDP felt it was necessary to make clear its determination to pass the bills as soon as possible, the sources said.

A special Diet session, which elects the prime minster, speaker and vice speaker, does not usually deliberate on bills.

In related news, the Nikkei reports tersely that Shizuka Kamei has resigned as head of his faction. Kamei was one of Koizumi's rivals for selection as Prime Minister four years ago; he was also one of Koizumi's most visible opponents in the debate over Japan Post privatization. Kamei had removed the faction's secretaries general from their positions last month when the pair voted in favor of the bill. The Kamei faction accounted for the largest number of opposing LDP votes in the House of Councillors.

Added a few minutes later: I don't have the news on, so I haven't seen Kamei's press conference; as always, the Nikkei's on-line story is being added to:

After his announcement, Kamei stated to the press corps that the reason for his resignation was that "my faction members have been put in a painful position" because the LDP has decided not to back current members of the Diet in the lower house election if they voted against the Japan Post privatization bill. He also explained, "We were unable to stop the reign of terror conducted by Prime Minister Jun'ichiro Koizumi."

It's hard to fault legislators who vote against laws they don't think are a good idea. On the other hand, Koizumi is attempting reforms that hit so many powerful beneficiaries where they hurt that you can't blame him for feeling the need to play hardball politics, either. It will be interesting to see what happens. The Mainichi has conducted another poll and says that public support of the cabinet is still rising. Those who didn't support it most frequently cited the slowness of economic recovery as their reason. Koizumi and his strategists have failed to give the public clear, easily digestible reasons that Japan Post privatization would be a real help in that regard. Whether they're going to change their approach now is anyone's guess.

The memorial service for the World War II dead was held today; 15 August is the anniversary of the Japanese surrender. The speeches contained, as always, avowals to uphold Japan's constitutional pledge of non-aggression and to use its prominence to work toward world peace. This was the first year that the family members in the procession of the bereaved included no parents of the dead. I doubt that that's necessarily going to be true from here on--the parents of those in their early 20s at the end of the Pacific War could be in their early or mid 80s now. That's higher than the average life expectancy for that generation, but not significantly higher.

Added a few minutes later: Why am I so scatterbrained? Hello! The real story was from Koizumi's Prime Minister's Statement:

Prime Minister Koizumi acknowledged [the facts of] history in his speech, saying, "Through our colonial governance and invasions, great damage and suffering were wrought on a great many nations, above all the peoples of Asian nations." In addition, he once again explicitly indicated a mindset of reflection and apology by saying, "We now express an attitude of unsparing self-reflection and, from the bottom of our hearts, apology, having fully and humbly confronted the facts of history." In both cases, he was quoting from the speech given by [then-Prime Minister] Murayama in which he apologized for the war, referring to [Japan's actions] as an invasion.

Murayama's speech was given exactly ten years ago.

Interesting, this:

Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi upped the ante in his war against party rebels by instructing that priority be given to fielding female candidates in the Lower House election next month.

The strategy started to take shape with a decision by ruling Liberal Democratic Party executives on Thursday to field Satsuki Katayama as its candidate in the Shizuoka No. 7 constituency. The seat is held by Minoru Kiuchi, 40, one of the party's 37 rebel lawmakers who voted against Koizumi's postal reform bills.

What's the reasoning, I wonder? Are LDP strategists trying to get out the housewife/single woman vote? Do they just feel that female talent hasn't been sufficiently tapped and that this is a good opportunity to make a statement about the party's values? Koizumi's stated reason is this:

Regarding the backing of female candidates, The Prime Minister told the press corps, "[The move is] because there are very few women members of the Diet. I want those who rise to be the most competent people possible."

Fair enough. I'm sure he means it. It seems likely that the strategy is also part of an effort to change the party's image. Koizumi sees himself--and has pitched himself--as a revolutionary. More visible women in positions of power would help dispel the impression that the failure of the Japan Post privatization bill to pass means that the LDP is still under the control of well-connected old men who are tied to the old patronage system.

*******

Speaking of women politicians--the Lesbian and Gay Pride Parade 2005 was held here in Tokyo yesterday. I didn't watch and, of course, it got next to zero news coverage as always. The Mainichi did report on it tangentially, though:

The Mainichi has learned that Osaka Prefectural Assemblywoman Kanako Otsuji (30) plans to participate in the Tokyo Lesbian and Gay Pride Parade on 13 August, coming out in public as a homosexual herself. Her autobiography is also to be published soon. It is extremely rare for sitting elected officials to come out in public as homosexual. Assemblywoman Otsuji stated, "Because of discrimination and prejudice, gays frequently haven't made themselves known. I hope that, by making myself visible as gay, I can throw the issue into relief and put and end to the vicious cycle of discrimination and prejudice."

I assume Otsuji made the announcement yesterday; no one was talking about the parade when I went out last night, but as I say, it isn't really an attention getter. More power to her. The image of gays in the Japanese media is very much on the freakishly-funny end of the spectrum. If Otsuji is able to be charmingly ordinary and gets a reasonable amount of coverage for her book, she could do a lot of good.

Shoichi Nakagawa, the Minister of Economics, Trade, and Industry, made a pilgrimage to the Yasukuni Shrine this morning. I assume the reactions from the rest of East Asia will be all over NHK by this evening. Yuriko Koike, the Minister of the Environment, and Hidehisa Otsuji, the Minister of Health, Labour and Welfare, plan to go tomorrow on the 60th anniversary of the Japanese surrender at the end of World War II; twelve members of the cabinet, including Prime Minister Koizumi and Chief Cabinet Secretary Hiroyuki Hosoda, have announced that they will not go to the shrine tomorrow.

Today is the 20th anniversary of the crash of JAL flight 123, which killed 520 people and remains the worst single-plane disaster in civil aviation history. The plane depressurized suddenly while flying from Tokyo to Osaka after losing its vertical stabilizer and hydraulic lines. The anniversary is played up on the news every year here not only because of the large number of deaths (including Kyu Sakamoto, who sang the song released as "Sukiyaki" in the US) but also because the crew's heroic efforts to use momentum to control the plane bought it 30 minutes before it crashed, enough time for many passengers to prepare farewells for relatives and affix identifying documents to their bodies. The flawed repair and maintenance that led to the tailfin separation were the fault of both Boeing and JAL; a round of suicides ensued.

Japan's transportation networks are objects of intense national pride, and after the JAL 123 crash, the airlines and civil aviation authorities redoubled their efforts to prevent accidents. In one of this morning's editorials, the Nikkei drily notes:

On that day [12 August 1985] Japan became acquainted with the pain of aviation accidents in the era of jumbo jet transport, and since then the assumption has been that those in the aviation industry continue to work hard, motivated by a resolve to assure that such an accident can never happen again. For 20 years, there have been no regular Japanese airline has experienced a crash.

However, recently, a incident upon incident has called into question that hard work and resolve.

In recent years, there have been a number of nail-biting near misses, the most famous of which was the 2001 incident in which air traffic controllers mistakenly steered two JAL jets into each other's paths. The planes, carrying a total of almost 700 passengers and crew, came within about 30 feet (!) of each other midair; one of the jets had to make collision-avoidance maneuvers so violent that 42 people were injured.

There have been plenty of other, lesser incidents (try searching this site for references to "JAL" and "ANA" just in the past year), and both major airlines have been officially censured by the Ministry of Land, Transport and Infrastructure. The best light to put on things is that the bad press about safety has given everyone concerned excellent motivation to tighten up operations; what tightening up is actually being done remains uncertain.

The Mainichi has done a poll that indicates the electorate is turned on by Prime Minister Koizumi's implacability in the face of the opponents who defeated his Japan Post privatization bill:

The Mainichi conducted a rapid nationwide opinion survey (by telephone) on 8 and 9 July, [to gauge reaction to] the news that Prime Minister Jun'ichiro Koizumi had gone ahead with his threat to dissolve the lower house of the Diet. Support for the Koizumi cabinet was at 46%, up 9 points from last month's poll, in which the figure (37%) had been the lowest ever. In contrast, non-support was at 37%, 3 points down. Additionally, the 54% of respondents who said they "agreed" with the dissolution of the lower house far outnumbered the 36% who said they "opposed" it. And with respect to the results of the 11 September lower house snap election, 50% said they "hoped for an administration with the LDP as ruling party," outnumbering the 35% who said they "hoped for an administration with the DPJ as ruling party."

Interestingly for a cabinet with a carefully cultivated young-upstart image, the Koizumi administration got its highest level of support, when broken down by respondents' ages, among those in their 60s. Jun-kun also isn't just for housewives to swoon over anymore: 52% of men and 43% of women support the cabinet according to the Mainichi survey.

We can't take polls at face value, of course; but allowing for give in the figures, is the Mainichi tracking something significant? I think it may be. Koizumi was elected as a reformer--he was the broom that was going to sweep away corruption and waste. The bank clean-up worked better than expected. The Yasukuni Shrine visits in and of themselves don't sit well with voters, but I suspect that to many people they represent a real, if impolitic, devotion to his country. Privatization of the postal service was one of his key reforms. He did not, as members of his own cabinet have pointed out, bring a lucid explanation to the average voter of why it was necessary to move from the existing semi-governmental Japan Post corporation to a fully-privatized set of institutions, but the public has at least been able to recognize the move as part of his effort to uproot the fat-cat LDP old guard.

Simply put, the Japanese people seem to like Koizumi when he's being a stubborn pain in the ass. They don't like when he caves to pressure and does the politically expedient thing, such as cutting off Foreign Minister Makiko Tanaka (who, remember, was more popular than Koizumi with the public before his 2001 selection as PM). Koizumi said last month that the LDP would not support the reelection of any Representative who voted against Japan Post privatization, and he seems to mean it.

It's only fair to note that the Yomiuri's poll, also conducted this week, showed less support for Koizumi than the Mainichi's:

Fifty-two percent of the respondents thought it was inevitable that Koizumi should dissolve the lower house after the postal bills were voted down Monday, while 35 percent said they did not think it was inevitable.

Asked who should be blamed for the dissolution, however, the number of those who said Koizumi should be blamed, at 39 percent, was close to that of those who said the responsibility lay with LDP members who rebelled against Koizumi, at 41 percent.

Among LDP supporters, 57 percent criticized the LDP rebels. But among independent voters, who are seen as the key to the election, those who said Koizumi was to be blamed recorded the highest percentage, at 43 percent.

The respondents' opinions were close again when asked if they wanted Koizumi to keep his post if the LDP was voted back in power--46 percent said they wanted Koizumi to remain as prime minister, while 43 percent said they did not. Among independent voters, 53 percent opposed Koizumi's retaining his post.

This result is another sign of the fall in Koizumi's popularity because in an interview-style Yomiuri Shimbun survey conducted before the previous lower house election, 55 percent of respondents said they wanted Koizumi to continue as prime minister.

Those who wanted the LDP to retain power after the dissolution, at 43 percent, surpassed those who preferred the Democratic Party of Japan to take power, at 33 percent.

Who's right? As I say, I think the Mainichi is likely to prove closer to the mark, and largely because of a phenomenon (let's cite all the dailies today, shall we?) that the Asahi notes: Koizumi is great at confounding his opponents, and they suck royally at banding together to push back at him because there's too much else they disagree on. The talk of a new party--against the entrenched LDP old timers but not as extreme in reformism as Koizumi's cabinet--hasn't come to anything. Even if Koizumi doesn't get, as he wants, new LDP candidates to run against every LDP Representative who voted against Japan Post privatization, he may still have leverage he can use to bring some of the dissenters back into line.

BTW, Koizumi's latest gambit is still causing his mentor, former Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori, grief. Whether Koizumi or his more cautious friends are in touch with reality, it's too early to judge. The next month should make for some lively NHK news broadcasts, though!

Added on 11 August: The Nikkei's poll shows, naturally, yet different results:

In a rapid nationwide opinion survey conducted by the Nikkei on 9 and 10 August, support for the Koizumi cabinet was at 47%, up 4 points from the previous survey in July. Non-support was 6 points down, to 37% percent. Regarding the non-passage of the Japan Post privatization bill by the upper house, 47% of respondents said they "support Prime Minister Koizumi['s position]," outnumbering the 36% who said they "supported the LDP opposition['s position]." About the make-up of the administration that results from the upcoming lower house election, 47% of respondents expressed hope that the administration would be led by the LDP in some configuration, with just 31% hoping for leadership from the DPJ.

Added on 13 August: Japundit has posted in more detail about which cabinet members are proposed to go up against which privatization foes.

The anniversary of the Nagasaki bombing gets less attention, I think, in the Western media than that of the Hiroshima bombing, which precedes it. The speeches on 9 August tend to contain harsher soundbites, though. Part of that is that the mayor of Nagasaki is outspoken about nuclear disarmament; given that he's not responsible for defending the nation, he can afford to be. A few months ago, he stated that the US has not made serious efforts toward nuclear disarmament. His sentiments were, as always, echoed by speakers today:

A representative of the survivors of the bombing, [Ms.] Fumie Sakamoto (74), read the "Peace Pledge," calling for the abolishment of nuclear weapons: "I have managed to live 60 years since that day; no one else must be allowed to taste this kind of suffering."

Prime Minister Koizumi also made the usual bland statements in support of worldwide nuclear disarmament. However, with due respect to Ms. Sakamoto and her fellow survivors' truly awesome fortitude, it is simply not possible for rich nations not to arm themselves with the best offensive and defensive military technology available.

Well, I guess it would be possible in the short term, but it would also be foolish. Practically the entirety of world history consists of the building up of material and intellectual riches by imaginative and hard-working peoples, followed by attempts by other peoples to grab those resources by force. Life is strife, unless we want to return to subsistence farming in isolated hamlets. The best way any free country can honor its war dead in deed is to allow its citizens to better their lives without impediment and to protect them, unwaveringly, when when others go after the fruits of their labor.

Added on 10 August: I saw this a week or so ago and forgot to mention it when posting on 6 August: Romeo Mike likes to take pictures of stupid-lefty political posters and stapled-up handbills around town. Last week, there was one about Hiroshima in the middle of this post.

I can't tell whether the pattern on the woman's obi is supposed to be origami doves of peace or, you know, lotuses of enlightenment or something. I can say that the first time I read the main message of "No more US wars / Abolish all nuclear weapons / Troops home from Iraq now," I thought, For crying out loud, is that a flippin' haiku? Please tell me they didn't...oh, sweet Amaterasu, they couldn't have.... Luckily, they hadn't--I was faked out by that five-syllable first line. That was where the relief ended, of course. (You have to read the "What will socialism look like?" one, too, which pushes the time-dishonored line that real socialism would lead to paradise on Earth; the problem is that no one's done it right yet. And at the risk of cramming too many topics in here, you might want to read RM's thoughts on the push for same-sex marriage in Australia, which appears to be prey to the same problems as it is in the States: disagreement among advocacy groups about both strategies and goals, contempt for dissenting gays and thoughtful opponents. The sun never sets on lefty stupidity.)

Added on 11 August: I don't want to beat this topic to death, but Michael and Daily Pundit have noted the way reports about the bombings land in La-la Land non-reality. Michael questions a Globe and Mail headline, and Bill Quick--well, if you want to know why I never cite The Japan Times here, it's because I don't read it. Check this out:

The U.S. actions arose not from any rage but from cool, calculated thinking. The intent was to deliver a crippling psychological blow to Japan by obliterating two of its important cities. No warning was given to the residents of Hiroshima and Nagasaki before unleashing the nuclear holocaust.

...

Before dropping the second bomb, shouldn't the U.S. have given Japan a reasonable and firm deadline to surrender? In rushing into a second nuclear attack before Japan could grasp the strategic significance of the first bombing, Truman achieved little more than showing that a tested implosion-type bomb worked.

No warning? A reasonable and firm deadline? You'd think we were talking about that employee in cubicle A7 who never submits his paperwork on time.

The Japan Post privatization bill has been voted down by the upper house of the Diet; Koizumi pledges to dissolve the lower house and call new elections on 11 September. There were 22 LDP votes against the bill, 4 more than the 18 required for it not to pass. The final total was 108 for, 125 against. It's the only thing NHK is talking about right now, naturally, but there's nothing really enlightening being said. The main noise in the House of Councillors' chamber after the tally was announced sounded like cheering, naturally.

Given the pressure the party leadership had put on LDP legislators to vote in favor, I'm sure some of those who weren't cheering were still feeling inward relief. There had not been much effort to get voters behind the bill, and those constituents that did voice opinions--such as, you know, the postal workers' unions--didn't support it. Ditto, of course, for the unelected officials in the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Internal Affairs, which oversee the current semi-governmental Japan Post corporation. Japan Post privatization has been presented in public all along as an example of the rifts in the LDP; it fulfilled that role to the end. The next month or so promises to be interesting.

Added at 16:00: As Atsushi just remarked to me while NHK's camera panned the assembled cabinet, the Prime Minister decided against cool biz today (though Heizo Takenaka and another minister or two are tie-less), and man, were they wearing some sour expressions.

Added at 11:59: Much hot air emitted since this afternoon. Few surprises. Koizumi has vowed that the lower house members who voted against the Japan Post privatization bill will not be supported by the LDP in the upcoming snap election. Otherwise, mostly a reaffirmation of positions by those whose talking heads have appeared for months.

BTW, it's worth noting in all the brouhaha that the point to which Japan had progressed before todays set of documents was formulated represented no small feat. The 2001 reorganization of the federal ministries involved the dissolution of the Trust Fund Agency of the Ministry of Finance, to which all Postal Savings deposits had theretofore been required to be routed. Granted, the creation of the Japan Post semi-governmental corporation didn't solve the spending problems, either on pork-barrel public works projects or on government bonds, but at least it let some light and air into the shadow budget. These things take time.

The asbestos scandal has been expanding so rapidly that it seemed wise to wait to say anything about it--there have been new and disheartening revelations just about daily for the last several weeks. The story actually began, of course, decades ago:

The Environment Agency, predecessor of the Environment Ministry, failed to measure asbestos fiber particle concentration in the air near asbestos-processing factories between 1979 and 1986, despite fears of health risks to residents, sources said.

Though the agency conducted research for two years starting in 1977 at 14 factories, it did not conduct measurements until an emergency study was made in 1987, when the use of asbestos in school buildings attracted attention as a health problem.

...

The agency introduced regulations on use of asbestos in 1989 by revising the Air Pollution Control Law.

It was known since the 1960s that many residents near asbestos-processing factories overseas had suffered from health problems.

The agency's study team urged in 1980 that research near asbestos-processing factories should be done as soon as possible because residents there had inhaled large concentrations of asbestos.

This is not like the asbestos hysteria in the States twenty years ago, when schools and other public buildings with contained asbestos were subjected to removal programs that actually risked ejecting it into the air at higher levels. Most of the problems that have been recently discovered in Japan involve either workers who handled asbestos of residents of areas near asbestos-using plants. There has been a shopworker whose mesothelioma has been linked to his work in a shop insulated with blue asbestos, but it was in a confined space that he spent a great deal of time in and often cleaned. To my knowledge, no other similar cases have been publicized, but as I say, there have been so many new announcements over the last month and a half that it would be easy to miss one.

There have been some concerns raised over asbestos in building materials--the latest involved Pacific Materials, a maker of building materials for public works projects, used asbestos in fire-retardant coverings (including what seems to be spray-on foam insulation) up to 1989. Japan tears down and rebuilds facilities at a much higher rate than the US, and that increased turnover makes it more important to know where each fiber in use is. Walls and ceilings do not sit unmolested for long here.　　Additionally, Japan has a track record of playing fast and loose with the use and disposal of hazardous materials. Despite Japan's image as a safety-conscious society with a tightly-controlled economy, safety regulations are often sketchy and slackly enforced. Nuclear screw-ups are the most well-known problem. Americans who arrive in Tokyo get a window on this attitude at seeing construction sites, which are separated from pedestrian pass-throughs by nothing more than traffic cones and plastic tubes; the walkways are often surfaced with pieces of old plywood. Unless there's a crane swinging I-beams overhead, it is extremely rare for a sidewalk to be entirely closed off for construction.

Most of the newly publicized cases of illness involve workers who came into repeated high-risk contact with uncontained fibers. The government has been slow to move on this problem, which has been known for decades; and as so often happens, its laxity is coming back to bite it all at one time. Multiple big-name companies have revealed that employees have been known to die of mesothelioma, the cancer most commonly linked with repeated airborne asbestos exposure (and, indeed, not known to be caused by anything else). The problem has invaded public consciousness to the point that fraudulent contractors are coming, uh, out of the woodwork to offer bogus asbestos containment or removal.

For those who want a run-down on the vocabulary used in the Japanese coverage of the scandal, this Yomiuri article hits most of them in the process of giving a description of the properties of asbestos. One thing that article doesn't point out is that the blue and brown fibers are considered more carcinogenic than the white fibers; use of new blue and brown asbestos was outlawed in Japan in 1995, and white asbestos wasn't banned until last year. Remember, t