The White Peril 白禍

The Nikkei says that the Koizumi administration is purposefully taking a combination of hard and soft approaches to its delicate relationship with the PRC.

The government--aiming to work out a resolution to problems with Japan-China relations, which have worsened since Prime Minister Jun'ichiro Koizumi's latest pilgrimage to the Yasukuni Shrine--has adopted a framework within which it can use both hard and soft responses. This approach has strengthened its unified front [with the PRC] on North Koreas nuclear disarmament. On the other hand, regarding the problem of Japan's United Nations member contributions, the government's approach has also involved moves to decrease the percent that comes from Japan, which opens the possibility that the contribution expected from the PRC would rise. This backdrop for this approach was a judgment that, given a reality in which relations between the two countries have become progressively more multipolar, including economic relations, there is no need to lean only in the direction of soft approaches.

Minister of Foreign Affairs Nobutaka Machimura was emphatic in an appearance on a 23 October Fuji Television program: "I'm surprised that everyone has succumbed to the most pessimistic arguments about this recent Yasukuni pilgrimage [by the Prime Minister]. They're clearly way too pessimistic. Do people really think that Japan's international stature would decline so abruptly?" Furthermore, he stated, "We haven't reestablished visits between our heads of state, but traffic on the economic and cultural fronts is brisk."

How do you solve a problem like China? You probably don't. The CCP is engaged in frequent games of chicken with China's own restless citizens, fomenting their discontent just enough for them to let off steam at Japan without having things get out of hand. The Koizumi administration's approach often seems haphazard, but trying to keep as many tools at the ready as possible is probably the only wise policy. Of course, the right tool still has to be used at the right time.

Prime Minister Koizumi has announced that Heizo Takenaka, the driving force behind the banking cleanup and Japan Post privatization, will retain his position after the cabinet reshuffling at the beginning of next month. Kazuo Kitagawa, the Minister of Land, Infrastructure, and Transport, will also retain his position. (Whether that's connected to the privatization of the Japan Highway Public Corporation and other transportation bodies is not clear from the Nikkei article.)

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One of NHK's social commentary shows is doing an installment on the future of Japan's youth, featuring an array of eyecatching fringe types. Whether anything illuminating will emerge remains to be seen. Atsushi (he's home for the weekend again) and I are a little dubious about the resolute freakshow aspect. Many of the teenagers being interviewed hang out in Shibuya, which is not exactly noted for attracting the studious rank-and-file.

The LDP's constitutional revision committee confirmed today that its proposals will, in fact, include an item that redesignates the Self-Defense Force (自衛隊) as the Self-Defense Army (自衛軍). Of course, the English there doesn't match up exactly, but the new title makes the SDF sound more like a substantial standing army and less like a modest squad that can be called in if there happens to be a need:

When the committee leaders met with the Prime Minister and former Prime Minister [Yoshiro] Mori on 14 October, they concurred on guidelines: (1) the philosophical underpinnings of Article 9, which decrees that Japan "renounces war," would be strictly maintained, (2) it would be stipulated in Article 9 Item ii that Japan maintains a self-defense army with the goals of defense of the homeland and of international cooperative efforts, and (3) in the revised text of Article 9, laws for "basic security," "international cooperation," and "emergency circumstances" would be established without explicit mention of a right to participate in collective self-defense operations.

It will be interesting to see what Japan's neighbors make of that, though the Bush administration will doubtless be happy.

This morning I apparently posted in the single nanosecond between Prime Minister Koizumi's paying of respects at the Yasukuni Shrine and the resulting Asiawide condemnation (both links are to the Mainichi):

Critics, especially in China and the Koreas, say that the shrine glorifies Japanese militarism, but Koizumi says that he is only mourning the country's war dead.

China in particular has taken a hard line with regard to Koizumi's Yasukuni visits, halting all meetings between the heads of government in both countries since he began attending the shrine.

Koizumi had said he would visit the shrine to attend its autumn festival, which runs from Monday to Friday.

What Koizumi is thinking when at the shrine is an open question. Whether the shrine glorifies Japanese militarism is somewhat easier to assess. The Asahi has a quotation from a PRC official I hadn't seen elsewhere:

"The Chinese government will staunchly oppose Prime Minister Koizumi's repeated visits to Yasukuni Shrine where the Class-A war criminals are enshrined--regardless of how the visits are made," said Wang Yi, the Chinese ambassador to Japan. "The fact that the prime minister has done such a thing on the day when the Shenzhou 6 made a successful return to Earth is a challenge to all Chinese people. The prime minister should accept historical responsibility for destroying China-Japan relations."

South Korean Foreign Affairs and Trade Minister Ban Ki Moon summoned Japanese Ambassador to South Korea Shotaro Oshima in Seoul. Ban said the South Korean government felt "deep regret and disappointment" over Koizumi's actions.The leaders of China and South Korea have repeatedly called on Koizumi to refrain from visiting Yasukuni this year, the 60th anniversary of the end of World War II.

I'm not entirely sure what the Shenzhou 6 has to do with anything. Japan has a history of botched rocket launches, but the ambassador doesn't seem to be getting in even a veiled dig about that.

What's likely to happen is that Korea will do its grit-its-teeth-and-bear-it thing, and China will do its still-no-official-head-of-state-visits thing while continuing to try to use Japan as a target for domestic restlessness that's actually at least partially directed at the CCP. Today's visit didn't happen at a moment that was any more strategic than any other of late--there's no specific tricky development in the dispute over oil and gas deposits in the East China Sea, say, or trade relations. But as always, today's visit will be a convenient thing to bring out later as an indication that Japan cannot be trusted to have dealt with its misdeeds during the occupation of Asia.

Prime Minister Koizumi visited the Yasukuni Shrine this morning for its autumn festival. It was the fifth visit for him since 2001. I don't think there's been enough time for the rest of Asia to flip out; even the Nikkei story is barely two lines long.

Japan Post privatization was approved by the House of Councillors today:

The Japan Post privatization bills were approved and enacted by a majority, mostly from the ruling coalition, in a session of the upper house on 14 October. The final vote was 134 in favor, 100 opposed. On 1 October 2007, the Japan Post Public Corporation will be privatized and spun off into four companies: one for postal service, one for postal savings, one for postal insurance, and one for window services.

The Nikkei reports on yet another initiative to curb government spending:

The Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications will establish an index of how much tax and other revenue prefectural and municipal governments are allocating to debt repayment and will introduce a system to limit regional bond generation (the issuing of new bonds) by those entities saddled with heavy liabilities. The regional government entities will be divided into three groups based on the proportion of their financial resources that goes to repayment of bonds; those deemed to be in financial health will be able issue bonds freely with the recognition of the federal government, and those whose figures are poor will be put under restrictions. The idea is to increase the number of regional government entities that can plug in to their economic strengths and finance themselves without relying on the federal government.

Printing bonds like poetry slam fliers to cover bad debt is as endemic a post-war Japanese pastime as, say, pachinko. Under the new plan, regional government bodies in poor fiscal health will still be able to issue bonds, but they'll be on their own when it comes to looking to the market for capital and to backing them.

The LDP's draft of suggested constitutional revisions will include this for the preamble:

[The draft] adopts an active posture toward international contribution and states, "We sincerely seek world peace, and will cooperate together with other nations in order to realize that end." The proposal expresses [Japan's] position concerning patriotism and self-defense this way: "We will preserve the independence of the nation through the efforts of citizens who love their country."

The proposed revisions also refer to Japan's unique "history and culture" in ways unspecified by the Nikkei article.

Kaoru Yosano on Japan's plan to reduce contributions to the UN:

There is nothing wrong with Japan's reduction in financial contributions to the United Nations, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party's top policymaker said Wednesday.

"I don't have the exact figure with me, but Japan covers roughly 17 or 18 percent of total contributions made by all U.N. member countries. So it's not that strange at all that the share is cut by a few percentage points," Kaoru Yosano, the LDP's Policy Research Council chairman, said in his speech at the Yomiuri International Economic Society in Tokyo.

Actually, Japan covers 19.47 percent of total contributions, or 37.1 billion yen, second only to the United States.

Foreign Minister Nobutaka Machimura made a proposal to hold a review of member countries' contributions last month in his speech at the U.N. General Assembly, seeking to lower Japan's spending.

Rough going is expected for such a review as some prominent countries, including China and Russia, likely will be asked to increase their shares.

But Yosano's remarks Wednesday reflect a widely shared frustration among Japan's political and business circles that Japan is asked for a too large contribution while not being given significant roles to play in the U.N. framework.

Almost one fifth of the total. And the US kicks in more. Of course, China's not going to be eager to kick in more. (The Mainichi, BTW, just conducted a new poll, the shocking results of which are that a lot of Japanese people are unhappy with China.)

Yosano also discusses the proposed revisions to Article 9 of the constitution.