The White Peril 白禍

"Don't make highway privatization a failure," warns this morning's Nikkei editorial:

The goal of the Japan Highway Public Corporation was to stop building any more pointless expressways and to decrease debt, now at about ¥40 trillion, as quickly as possible. However, there's a slim chance that we can hope for much from the new corporation regarding those items.

The new private corporation holds no capital but will stick the nation with its debt balance. New road construction will also be ultimately decided upon by a state council. In this structure, which will be completely under state protection and governance, there will be almost no elements through which discipline will come into play in operations. Plans for the laying of 9342 kilometers [of new roadway] are for the most part complete, and there is a strong possibility that the resulting ballooning debt will be shunted off onto the next generation.

This new company, with its complete reliance on state support, has also shown its true colors to the market. Top managers have been arrested on suspicion of bid-rigging, and the books show nothing resembling a drop in losses from unprofitable roads. Even under these exigent circumstances, Japan Public Highway Corporation bonds have remained stable in value. It all makes it look unlike a corporation that's about to be privatized.

In a risk-free world, ethical considerations go out the window. At the instruction of the Prime Minister, the Privatization Promotion Committee formed three years ago proposed "complete privatization," by which buy-off of all assets for the privatized corporation would be accomplished in a projected ten years. But LDP Diet members and the heads of regional government bodies violently opposed the proposal, and it was defanged through the machinations of the Ministry of Land, Transport, and Infrastructure and part of the privatization committee. Perhaps because [interested parties] saw this and felt a sense of confidence in their untouchability, it was at this point that large-scale institutionalized bid-rigging really began to effloresce.

The Nikkei editors want Koizumi to use his surge in popular support to make sure the privatization of the highway corporation stands a chance of being a significant part of government finance reform. I don't know--Japan Post (speaking of defanged proposals) and highway construction? He'd have to be a miracle worker.

Koizumi has reappointed everyone from his previous cabinet for the remainder of the Diet's special session; his predicted reshuffle will be made after the next regular session begins in November.

On the Japan Post privatization, which is the main order of business after the selection of the Prime Minister, the Mainichi has this article, which contributes little new information but has an interesting point buried in it:

The main opposition group, the Democratic Party of Japan, expects to come up with its own counterproposal. But that proposal has been delayed by the disarray in the party following a painful defeat in elections and a change in leadership.

The LDP privatization plan, larded as it is with concessions, has plenty of flaws that the DPJ could be trying to exploit. I doubt that it could somehow come up with arguments powerful enough to counter the Koizumi cabinet's level of public support, but if it started systematically explaining the plan's weaknesses now, it might be able to begin establishing credibility that would help it later. Unfortunately, it has bigger things to worry about, such as, you know, continuing to exist.

Something else that the government has been working on that the Japanese public, if not most international observers, has been paying attention to is the new asbestos victims' compensation bill:

The fund will cover the medical costs of those with mesothelioma, lung cancer and other diseases caused by the inhalation of asbestos particles. It will also pay consolation money and cover funeral expenses for family members of those who have died from such diseases.

The bills stipulate that applications for the fund can come from anyone who thinks that his or her disease was caused by asbestos. Family members of workers at factories that used asbestos or those who live near those plants can also apply.

Applications will be accepted at labor standards inspection offices or public health centers, the officials said.

The story has been gaining steam since spring.

It is to be hoped that the asbestos fund won't end up being milked by enterprising false claimants. Cf. today's disclosure about two nuclear power corporations:

The Japan Nuclear Cycle Development Institute and the Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute were revealed on 22 September to have illegally paid over 120 million yen to employees who were not actually eligible to for benefits for those who work with radiation. There were workplaces in which such illegal disbursement was routine.

From April 2002 to May of this year, the JNC paid out 119.55 million to 604 employees; the JAERI, 9.41 million yen to 113 employees. The greatest amount to a single employee was 600,000 yen. Both organizations will require the employees involved who have not retired to return all the money.

The benefits to those who work with radiation are to be paid when the number of days [a worker] has entered into a radiation control zone exceeds a fixed monthly figure. Payments are made based on the work attendance logs employees keep, but those logs were not systematically verified through comparison with sign-in/sign-out sheets at the radiation control zones.

In this context, the motto displayed on the JNC's website is darkly (radiantly?) comical. It must be very easy to fake 出勤簿 (shukkinbo: "work attendance log") at large companies where payroll is handled far from workstations.

Related Posts (on one page):

1. Insurance rate hikes to fund asbestos payouts
2. Diagnostic criteria for asbestos-related diseases to be fixed
3. Odds and ends
4. Word for the summer: 石綿 （sekimen: "rock" + "cotton" --> "asbestos")

Seiji Maehara's attempt to cobble together a viable party from the tattered DPJ is summarized by the Yomiuri. Among the interesting tidbits to date:

Maehara's appointment of [Yukio] Hatoyama [as secretary general] is expected to be shortly followed by an invitation to [Ichiro] Ozawa to serve as acting president. It is believed the new leader hopes that by including veterans close to Hatoyama and Ozawa he can ensure party unity.

Hatoyama told reporters Sunday he believed the new leader was keen to ensure party unity, but his preferential treatment of midranking and younger members might cause unrest unless all members felt included.

A midranking party member said he thought the appointment of Takeaki Matsumoto, Maehara's fellow national security expert and member of the party's right wing would have an immediate unifying effect once discussion on national security and constitutional reform got under way.

Matsumoto, 46, a Tokyo University law graduate, was elected in the proportional representation bloc for Kinki, the third time he has won a lower house seat since 2000. He had held the positions of Policy Research Committee vice chairman and deputy in the shadow cabinet defense portfolio.

Maehara said in an NHK program Sunday morning that he did not include former SDP lawmakers, who have close relationships with labor unions, because he needed to reconsider the party's relationship with labor unions, especially public-sector ones.

The Democratic Party of Japan has selected its new top four post-Okada leaders:

The DPJ's leader Seiji Maehara decided on 18 September to tap Yukio Hatoyama as Secretary General, Takeaki Matsumoto as chair of the Policy Research Committee, and Yoshihiko Noda as chair of the Diet Affairs Committee. He gathered his new top three men in the evening, planning to confer about responses to the special Diet session called for 21 September.

Maehara is interesting. It appears that he may do the Clinton-in-1992 thing:

Seiji Maehara, a young conservative, began reshaping the main opposition bloc on Sunday by appointing new officers and outlining plans for a stronger military and smaller spending in a vision that drew comparisons to British Prime Minister Tony Blair's "third-way" government.

Maehara, a 43-year-old defense expert who wants a more assertive role for Japan's military overseas, was narrowly elected a day earlier to head the DPJ, edging aside staid party veteran and co-founder Naoto Kan.

The new leader said Sunday he would re-examine his party's close ties to labor unions, trim wasteful tax spending and push to amend Japan's Constitution so the country's Self Defense Forces would have greater freedom to fight overseas and support its allies. Maehara also wants spending cuts balanced by strong funding for education and other social welfare programs.

Maehara is strong on defense and says Japan's Constitution must clearly give the SDF the right to fight back if attacked and include a new article stipulating its role in aiding allies.

Of course, Clinton wasn't a defense expert. What I'm referring to is more the idea that Maehara is adopting some positions usually associated with those to his party's right while sweetening them with talk about spending on social programs dear to those on his left. Maehara's website has linked, among his writings, this magazine article from November 2001 about Japan's close defense ties with the US, against the backdrop of 9/11. It's lengthy, but one thing that stands out is that Maehara doesn't--or didn't then--see the Japan-US alliance as arising naturally from our similar societies as Koizumi does:

[T]he value of offering visible aid, recognized by the American people, when our ally the US is suffering, does not stop at the psychological; rather, it is also necessary from the viewpoint of risk management regarding the allegiance itself.

It is fine, I believe, for there to be thinking to the effect that we may want to dissolve our relationship as allies, when we take the long-term view. However, at this moment in time, for our allegiance with the US to change character suddenly would most assuredly not work in Japan's national interest.

That seems fair enough. Of course, maybe I'm biased in Maehara's favor because--can I have failed to mention this?--the dude is hot. (He looks better talking than he does in the posed picture on his homepage, but the photo gives you the general idea.) In objective terms, he's probably not too seriously dreamy, but given the milieu in which he operates, he is very easy on the eyes. The rule seems to be that you're not allowed to be a middle-aged Japanese politician until you've survived a near-fatal whupping with the ugly stick. Right after the election, Gaijin Biker was all crowing about how the LDP had hot women and its opponents were guys who needed paper bags over their heads. Understandably, being hetero, he doesn't seem to have noticed that all the guys on the LDP side were no better.

Yes, I can shift in a paragraph from talking about the Japan-US defense partnership to making lustful comments about men. It's a talent. If you'd like to see me do it in a single clause, I'm sure I can arrange that, too.

Anyway, politics, blah, blah...Japundit thought, before the DPJ vote, that Maehara looks as if he needs more seasoning before he's ready to be a serious competitor for Prime Minister:

Maehara appears at first glance as if he will become a viable leader—in five or 10 years. He is obviously intelligent and talented, but still lacks the gravitas people expect from a prime minister. I got the impression that his candidacy was not for this particular election, but for the next one down the road. With his party in desperate straits, however, he might wind up getting chosen prematurely. Let's hope he doesn't have to go on the political version of life support.

Reasonable enough. On the other hand, we're all just guessing. Politics in this media age frequently thrusts people into situations that turn out to be trial by fire. We may find out relatively quickly whether Maehara can make his combination of hawkishness, support for increased social welfare spending, talk about small government, and near-unprecedented level of cuteness potentially media-friendly image connect with Japanese voters.

Simon links to an interesting article by Yoichi Funabashi, an Asahi senior correspondent who's now a visiting scholar at the Brookings Institution. It asks the question about how the LDP's landslide relates to China from the opposite direction I've been asking it--namely, how will Koizumi's victory play out in Japan's China policy, and what will that mean as the two countries evolve economically?

Curiously enough, foreign policy was almost totally absent from the pre-election debate. Some may perceive this as a sign that Japan is growing increasingly inward-looking, as Koizumi simply wanted to limit the agenda to the single domestic issue of postal privatization. However, this reading would be wrong. Although very difficult to detect since it was discreetly under the radar, I would nevertheless contend that the China factor was actually one of the largest issues in this election, as more than any other factor, a rising China and its direct challenge to Japan set the context for the debate.

I'm not 100% sure I'm convinced by every jot and tittle that follows, but Funabashi is right in the main. Foreign policy was brought up only by relatively minor opposition parties, and then almost exclusively with reference to the SDF deployment in Iraq and the proposed revisions to the Japanese constitution. Not even specific policy issues that were the subjects of recent flare-ups--such as the disputed fossil fuel fields in the East China Sea--were given attention, let alone the larger question of how Japan intends to maintain its strategic role in a shifting Asia.

One part I'm not sure about--not that I disagree, mark you; I just think it could go either way--is this:

Koizumi's landslide victory may in time prove to be the last gasp of the LDP, as the public likely holds unrealistic expectations of how much Koizumi will be able to accomplish before he steps down next September.

Given their shocked reactions to their own party's staggering victory, that was on minds of quite a few LDP members themselves right after the election, too. I wonder, though. Japan is a conformist society, but the Japanese have personal idiosyncrasies like everyone else. Just about everyone here has had multiple experiences with, say, projects at work that failed because protocol and consensus-building were prioritized over practical decision-making. I think it very possible that Koizumi is clever enough to find a way to blame any further stalling of reforms over the next year on, if not hold-outs in the House of Councillors, then federal bureaucrats. In that case, it could be his successor who's in big trouble and will need to get used to doing a Margaret Thatcher impression.

Funabashi doesn't put it this way, but he does by extension raise another very disturbing question: Is it even possible for Japan to fashion a really workable comprehensive China policy, or have conditions gotten to the point that protecting Japan's interests will mean constantly shifting in response to this week's constellation of trade and cultural conflicts? Remember that you have to factor in (something else Funabashi doesn't weigh) that the US and Japan have become even closer military allies over the last several years. The possibilities are endless. It will be very interesting to see what Koizumi does with his momentum over these next few weeks when the sugar high is over.

Some of the opponents of Japan Post privatization are forming their own faction in the Diet, or at least proposing doing so:

Legislators who were dropped by the LDP after voting against Japan Post privatization in the ordinary Diet session but managed to win reelection as unaffiliated candidates have begun working toward the formation of a new faction. Takeo Hiranuma stated to the press on 15 September, "If unaffiliated people of the same way of thinking get together, they can form a single new faction." There are, however, those among the unaffiliated legislators who are making moves toward uniting forming a united faction with the People's New Party, so responses may be divided.

Hiranuma is a former Minister of Economy, Trade, and Industry, BTW. Not a man of mean power and influence.

Results of the Nikkei's latest web-based poll (insert the usual SLOPs caveats here):

On 12 and 13 September, in the wake of the ruling coalition's crushing victory, the Nippon Keizai Shimbun Corporation conducted its fourth Internet poll on the election. Support for the cabinet stands at 54%, 4 points higher than during the last poll just before election day. Support for the LDP is at 45%, an increase of 5 points. Support for the DPJ is reined in at 29% (a 1-point drop). The proportion saying they look forward to the Koizumi administration's tackling the job of improving relations with the PRC, ROK, and other neighboring states reached 69%.

It's helpful to remember that the Nikkei serves a readership that's...well, a lot like me: pro-markets and suspicious of big government. Even within those boundaries, though, I would have been interested to hear what specific China and Korea policies it supported.

Something interesting I haven't seen given much play: how did the PRC react to Koizumi's big win on Sunday? I've been looking and Googling, but I haven't found anything substantive. There's this from Kyodo about a story in a Singaporean newspaper--which is at least part of the Chinese-speaking world. It says the obvious:

The Chinese-language Lianhe Zaobao said Koizumi is expected to become even more powerful after this election and could easily win wide support for his views on controversial issues such as his recurring visits to the war-related Yasukuni Shrine. The controversial shrine honors 14 Class-A war criminals along with 2.47 million war dead.

There's also a translated Xinhua editorial at The People's Daily, but it's pretty muffled, too:

In terms of foreign policies, the LDP noted the need to improve ties with Asian neighbors. Yet, the points was rarely mentioned in Koizumi's campaign speeches.

After the voting, the premier stopped short of dismissing the possibility of paying a visit to the Yasukuni Shrine when he was answering questions on a live program of the public broadcaster NHK.

His repeated visits to the war criminal-enshrining facility was the major stumbling block in relations with China and South Korea.

The Yasukuni Shrine issue causes the greatest number of public snits, but there are more important things to think about, trade and energy policy chief among them. It will be interesting to see, and I'm sure we will after everyone's finished gawking at the numbers and talking about Japan Post privatization.

Just for a sense of perspective, here's the section of the DPJ party platform about Japan-China relations; I have no doubt that strategists in Beijing read it:

The restructuring of Japan-China relations is one of the most important tasks for Japanese diplomacy. [Japan should] build a relationship of trust between the leaders of the two nations, and on that basis, systematize and deepen policy dialogue in fields such as the economy, finance, currency, energy, the environment, maritime activities, and security.

I looked--pretty carefully, I think--but I didn't see anything concrete about the big Japan-PRC sticking points. By contrast, the LDP manifesto contained a blandishment or two about mutual prosperity, but there was also this item among its 120 pledges:

Concerning the Hoppo and Takeshima Islands, we will assiduously pursue a resolution. Further, we will secure the maritime interests of our nation, such as the promotion of the development of natural resources in the East China Sea and surveying of the continental shelf.

I'm sure the Chinese got that message. The Koizumi administration's China policy has, after all, not only included refusal to stop visiting the Yasukuni Shrine but also threats to do exploratory drilling in disputed undersea oil and gas fields.

Added over cold coffee: I asked Simon whether he'd seen anything in the Chinese media, and this is his answer: Why, no, not much. He also notes that such mention as there has been has focused on the Yasukuni Shrine issue.

Koizumi is still saying that he will play by the rules and step down as Prime Minister in 2006, but there are noises about extending his tenure:

On Sunday, Koizumi reiterated he would step down in September 2006, when his term as LDP president expires, but more and more members of the ruling coalition have floated the idea of possibly extending his term beyond next September.

"That's an important matter we have to think about," LDP Secretary General Tsutomu Takebe said Sunday night about the possible extension.

"The LDP's rule [that Koizumi's term expires next September] is one thing, but on the other hand there's the question of how we should interpret the people's will expressed [in the landslide victory] in this election," said LDP Acting Secretary General Shinzo Abe, who is frequently cited as a possible successor to Koizumi.

New Komeito representative Takenori Kanzaki also hinted his support for extending Koizumi's term. "I'll be speaking about [term extension] on various occasions from now on. Winning this many seats also comes with a certain responsibility for the prime minister," Kanzaki said Sunday.

Yeah, Koizumi has a "certain responsibility," all right. Having finally returned the LDP to complete and utter domination, he's going to have the party leadership anxious to squeeze whatever remaining gains from him it can. It seems to me that, overall, it would be good for him to groom a successor over the next year and leave office as planned. If Koizumi gets through a few more key policy changes and is able to say, next year around this time, "Thank you, Japan, for giving me the opportunity to do my job. It's finished. Time to move on to [say, Abe]," it would help to counter the LDP's image as a party full of people who seek the greatest amount of power they can amass and then keep a death-grip on it well into their dotage.

Speaking of which, people are already starting to say that it's scary that the LDP won so many seats because now it's going to turn into some big, scary juggernaut. Maybe. Let's remember a few things, though: a lot of government power rests in the appointed officials in the federal ministries, and the elected officials know it. And some of the key public employees don't even work for the federal ministries. Recall that one of the toughest parts about getting Japan Post privatization through was the resistance of the postal workers' unions, which threatened not to use their rural outposts to drum up the support of voters for LDP candidates. Koizumi rode into office on a wave of popularity the first time, too; but we all saw soon enough that that wasn't enough for him to get everything he wanted by a long shot.

Hell, the Japan Post privatization package itself has already been watered down considerably; in fact, the watering down started quite a while ago. (Once again, the analogy is not perfect, but check the potential parallels with the California power privatization fiasco.) Koizumi's next project is said to be the integration of the government's two pension systems: the one for civil servants and the one for the rest of us salaried types. Worryingly, he's been quoted as saying, "It will necessary to listen to a variety of opinions while formulating the plan." Sound familiar?

In any case, it is true that the LDP focused hard on Japan Post privatization during the run-up to the election. It's ridiculous, though, to say that that means that voters, in practice, were voting on that single issue and thus can't be said to have expressed support for Koizumi's overall policy platform. Note that, if it's the DPJ we're talking about, its opposition to the LDP's Japan Post scheme was very well-conceived.

No, the Japanese public has not lost its ambivalence toward the SDF deployment in Iraq or the possible amendment of the constitution to allow for combat participation in collective-defense missions. But please. The other parties were all over those issues. They had plenty of opportunities to make their case. Japanese voters, in turn, had the opportunity to, say, vote in a lot of LDP candidates in single-seat districts but "balance" them with more proportional-representation seats from the opposition. They failed to do so. They failed to do so in a big, bad way. They failed to do so even in Tokyo, which is not generally an LDP stronghold. They failed to do so in such a big, bad, Tokyo-included way that it's hard to interpret the election results in any way but that the electorate wants Koizumi and his crew of upstarts to do what they say they're going to do.

Yesterday was the birthday party of a very close friend, so from 19:00 on I was pretty much away from sources of news, except when I talked to Atsushi at midnight-ish. He told me then that it was 自民党大勝利 (jimintou daishouri: "big victory for the LDP"), but I spent the rest of the night carousing and have just awakened.

My loverman was not exaggerating. The ruling coalition won over 300 seats. And the LDP alone--without its coalition partners--has an outright majority:

The 44th lower house general election, in which the major point of contention was which party would control the government, was held on 11 September, with vote counting beginning immediately [after the polls closed]. The LDP won overwhelmingly in both single-seat districts and proportional representation blocs, and together with the Komeito topped 300 seats. It appeared to be an expression of confidence in the trajectory of party president Jun'ichiro Koizumi's reforms, and it is probable that the Japan Post privatization bills will be passed in a special diet session at the end of this month.

...

The LDP will control the chairs of, and won more than the 269 seats necessary to form an absolute majority of members in all of, the lower house's standing committees.

In the morning print edition of the Nikkei, the numbers are updated:

LDP: 295
New Komeito: 30
DPJ: 113
Social Democrats: 6
Communists: 9

The rest of the seats that have been counted went in handfuls to unaffiliated candidates or those with the People's New Party, which was founded by rebel LDP legislators who voted against Japan Post privatization. DPJ leader Katsuya Okada has already announced officially that he's stepping down. Prime Minister Koizumi looks as if he really enjoyed swallowing that canary.

A 2/3 majority! I can't even wrap my head around that--and I like Koizumi and was rooting for him. Of course, there's a lot to think about. The LDP made Japan Post its focal point for the election, but the opposition parties were very vocal about Article 19, the SDF in Iraq, and social welfare policy. Those are issues on which the Japanese are deeply divided, and the election results surely don't signify an unqualified mandate for all aspects of Koizumi's foreign policy. Nevertheless, the voters had a chance to reject the Koizumi government, and it means something that they didn't. (It's worth noting, though, that coalition partner New Komeito is much more pacifist than the LDP--certainly than the Koizumi cabinet--but despite its new dominance in the lower house, the LDP still needs the New Komeito to maintain its upper house majority.)

The English editions of the major dailies have their stories so far here: Asahi, Mainichi, Yomiuri, Japan Times. (Does the Sankei even have an English edition?)

Added at 17:11: Another interesting aspect of the snap election was the use of 刺客 (shikaku: "assassin," lit., "specialized stabber") candidates. These were the high-profile candidates fielded by the LDP in single-seat districts against those (formerly) in its own party who had voted against Japan Post reform. Most of the assassin candidates won.

Added at 18:31: Okay, just one more link to the Mainichi, whose English reports are most closely reflecting what we're seeing in non-linkable broadcast media. This one quotes a series of hilariously stunned LDP members all saying, essentially, "Whoa!" The original Japanese article is here, and its lead paragraph is far funnier:

As day broke the morning after lower house election day in the Nagatacho district of Tokyo, the LDP was having an attack of "296-seat shock." "We won so many seats, the prospect of the next election is frightening." With the LDP victorious and jubilant, and the DPJ soundly defeated and dazed, the blessed and the cursed were sharply distinguishable.

BTW, that former cabinet member quoted in the English article actually said this: "勝ったのにどうかと思うけど、怖い。ものが言えなくなってしまう。ファッショだよ。" ("We won, but I wonder whether this is for the best. It's frightening. I'm just dumbstruck. It's fascistic.") Yes, that last sentence is a literal translation, but since the quotation ends there, I'm not sure whether the official was referring to the cult of personality that can be said to surround Koizumi or to the high percentage of seats won or what.

Added at 19:24: Riding Sun calls the success of the Koizumi administration's strategy to field high-profile women candidates a vindication of the "Japanese Babe Theory." I think he's right--it's not a joke. Most of the women "assassins" seemed smart and lively and, dare I say, sassy. They stood in clear visual contrast to the stereotypical LDP politician. At the same time, I believe the move was also smart because the women candidates suggested a connection to the social and family issues--employment and pension figures, especially, but also education and child and elder care--that the party PR machine was deemphasizing but that most voters care the greatest deal about.

I don't want to downplay the capabilities of any of the candidates. They may, in fact, have expertise in hard policy issues that hasn't been given much attention yet. (At least one, Yuriko Koike, has already been Minister of the Environment.) But image matters, especially when the key issue in an election is an unsexy topic such as Japan Post privatization.

NHK's political yak show has all the party leaders on right now, BTW. No one is saying anything even slightly more interesting than you'd expect. Takebe is, of course, in his cool-biz shirt, looking as if he were headed off to the club for a few whiskeys the minute the lights go down; he appears very somber, but maybe he's just tired. Okada has regained some of his color, but of course he looks very unhappy, and it seems somewhat unkind for NHK to be showing him in extreme close-up when he talks.

LOL. Tamisuke Watanuki, a leader of the Japan Post opponents who were abandoned by the LDP, is talking. The expression on Takebe's face across the table! He looks as if he wanted to vault across the studio and throttle him.

Today is the snap election here. We'll see whether Koizumi's conviction that the electorate supports his reforms--or supports the way he's going about them--is justified. Atsushi voted last week while he was here. The street was a madhouse yesterday when I got my haircut. (For those who follow my hair-related travails, yesterday found me being massaged with some cinnamon/ginger-y oil and then washed down with apple-scented shampoo. I half-expected to be loaded onto a platter, garnished with mint leaves, and served for dessert with hard sauce and whipped cream.) The Komeito flacks were, indeed, focusing exclusively on Japan Post privatization as they walked by and shook hands. The communists went by in a van blaring about health care and Article 9. We'll see who gets what when the results come in.

Leaders of the major parties showed up on NHK this morning to discuss their platforms for the election on 11 September. Koizumi appeared alone for the LDP, still doing the cool-biz thing. He spoke with conviction as he always does, but I'm not sure that if I didn't already agree with most of his policies he would have convinced me (not that it matters much, since I'm not a Japanese citizen).

The two women who appeared to speak for the Social Democratic Party were clearly aiming for the housewife/working woman vote. They played up the number of people with at-will contract and part-time jobs instead of full-time regular positions. (One of their proposals is legislation to guarantee that part-time workers are compensated exactly the same as "comparable" company workers.) They talked about the SDF's non-combat involvement in Iraq as a dangerous blow to Japan's vow of non-aggression in the constitution. Their conversation was clearly rehearsed, but sounding artificial is not the sin in Japan it is in America.

The DPJ was next. Man, has Katsuya Okada slept at all this year? He looked green. He was sunken-cheeked and hollow-eyed. He was accompanied by Ho Ren, who was well-spoken but has a smile that the television camera made look like Mother Bates's grinning skull at the end of Psycho. From the looks of things, they were representing the Cadaver Party. Even so, it must be admitted that Okada presented the DPJ's opposition to Japan Post privatization in a way that was pointed and internally coherent. What needs to be done to stop the wasteful use of so much capital that goes through Japan Post is to (1) change the way money is allocated in the government and (2) shrink the amount of household wealth citizens can pour into postal savings accounts and insurance policies. He succeeded in presenting it in a way that made Koizumi sound as if he were obsessed with proving a political point rather than interested in fixing the government. Very shrewd. Too bad he looked as if he'd had to be exhumed for the occasion. The next week will be interesting.

FWIW, the Nikkei's latest web-based poll indicates that 54% of decided voters who responded plan to vote for LDP candidates for single seats. Of course, only 55% of respondents were decided, so WIW may not be much.