The White Peril 白禍

While the federal government cannot figure out how to appoint a new Governor General of the Bank of Japan, it's had no trouble filling another important position:

In a bid to help boost Japan's international prestige and disseminate its culture, cartoon character Doraemon was inaugurated Wednesday as the official cultural ambassador for Japanese anime.

Cartoon character Doraemon is a catlike robot from the 22nd century and is considered a Japanese cultural icon.

...

"Please work hard to let people around the world learn more about Japan and encourage people to foster friendships with each other," Komura said.

Doraemon replied by saying: "It's an honor to do such an important job. I'll work as hard as I can."

Perhaps his first assignment will be to go back in time to the day this plan was hatched, draw a cluebar out of his 4th-dimensional pocket, and whack some bureaucrats with it. Hard.

I'm not sure the English Mainichi editorial on the ongoing failure to get a new Governor General of the Bank of Japan approved is the best, but I like the graphic. The Xes need only boxes around them to look like the strikes on Family Feud back in the '70s.

Efforts to fill the Bank of Japan governor's position have gone back to square one, and the post remains vacant. The Bank of Japan stands at the core of Japan's economic management, and its movements are watched closely overseas. Now, it has nobody at the helm. And politicians are to blame for creating such a situation.

The House of Councillors failed to approve the appointment of Koji Tanami, head of the Japan Bank for International Cooperation, following the rejection of earlier nominee, former BOJ Deputy Gov. Toshiro Muto. Both men formerly served as Administrative Vice-Minister of the Finance Ministry.

The government has appointed as deputy governors former BOJ executives Kiyohiko Nishimura and Masaaki Shirakawa, who is also a Kyoto University professor, with the latter to serve as the interim bank chief until a permanent posting is made.

There's a meeting of G7 central bank governors in April. The Mainichi hopes, plaintively, that the BOJ has an actual chief by then.

No surprise here: the DPJ is making good on its threat to oppose the Muto nomination:

The leadership of the Democratic Party of Japan met on 11 March and resolved not to agree to the the government's nomination of Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Toshiro Muto as its new governor. Regarding nominees for new deputy governors, it will oppose University of Tokyo Professor Takatoshi Ito but not University of Kyoto Professor Masaaki Shirakawa.

Now that the ruling coalition doesn't control the upper house, it can't get its nominees through the Diet without the agreement of the DPJ. The DPJ argument against Muto--that he's a career bureaucrat who will compromise the central bank's independence--isn't one to be taken lightly. Muto was once Vice-Minister of Finance...meaning that he had risen through the ranks of appointed officials to become the official with the most real power in the ministry (more than the Minister of Finance himself, who's appointed by the current administration from on high and lacks the deep-rooted connections with ministry insiders). Japan has a lot of public debt, so the fear is that Muto will be too likely to keep interest rates down to gladden the hearts of federal bureaucrats by helping finance the (large) public debt. And word is that Muto is less committed, at least in the short term, to raising rates than Toshihiko Fukui, whom he'd be succeeding.

At the same time, I have yet to hear whether the DPJ has any bright ideas about who should get the job, and more bickering right now just gives foreign investors more reason--as if more were needed--to think Tokyo is seriously flaky and unreliable.

Apropos of nothing: I don't know much about the deputy governor nominees, but Wikipedia says that Ito is a disciple of Kenneth Arrow, who presumably directed his dissertation at Harvard.

Back in Tokyo for a half-week stay to attend to a few things before going back for my last few weeks in Taipei. This time, it's the clear weather that's following me around, which is nice. Not even I, with my English genes and sense of dramatic melancholy, like rain and overcast skies that don't stop for weeks at a time.

Japan appears not to have undergone any major changes, though I have to say I loved this item from the other way (which I was too busy to post about at the time):

Cutting bureaucratic fat may be a lot tougher than anticipated.

A government advisory panel's proposal to reduce branch offices of central ministries and agencies is expected to meet with fierce opposition.

While terms such as branch office and regional bureau may conjure up images of "outposts" of central government ministries, those venues are considered by entrenched bureaucrats as comprising the "core" of their ministries.

...

Past developments do not bode for fast progress. Last year, the decentralization committee asked for suggestions on possible mergers of branch offices.

Not a single central ministry came up with a positive proposal.

"Tougher than anticipated"? Asking central ministries whether they have any bright ideas about how to shrink their own territory and limit their own authority? The degree of ingenuousness on display here is touching. Every battle over restructuring federal ministries--from the game of musical chairs finalized in 2001 to the Koizumi administration's "trinity reforms"--has amply demonstrated that bureaucrats do not willingly look for ways to give themselves less power. And they know how to work the system to get their way, largely because they pretty much are the system.

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It's confirmed that Toshiro Muto is the candidate whose name has been submitted to committee as the next head of the Bank of Japan. (Toshihiko Fukui's chances for a second term were scotched by his involvement in the Murakami Fund/Livedoor maelstrom.)

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I'm starting to get the new Janet album, which makes me happy. It's been a while since a celeb put out an album that actually grew on me instead of provoking an immediate and unshifting love it/hate it/enh reaction. The single seems to have gone nowhere except in dance clubs, of course.

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Happy belated birthday to Rondi, who was born on 5 March.

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Happy on-time birthday to Lynn Swann, Taylor Dayne, and Tammy Faye (wherever she is), who were born on 7 March like me. This is apparently the day Apple was granted the patent for the iPod two years ago, too, which is very cool.

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Eric has a good post about maneuvering in the Pennsylvania primaries. I agree that those who think goosing Clinton's campaign in order to help McCain along later are playing with fire:

Unless that is, I do something about it, and fast. The way I see it, Hillary is going to win this state, and the forces of Rush Limbaugh are going to do their damnedest to increase her margin of victory. This, it is believed, will help John McCain. Not only do I disagree with this approach, but I distrust it. Almost without exception, Limbaugh and the other major Hillary promoters hate John McCain and make no secret of it. So I am deeply suspicious of their claim that they are "helping" John McCain by helping Hillary at the polls.

I think this might very well have the opposite effect. Yesterday's election results demonstrated the fragility of Obama's house of cards, because the Obamamania is already starting to wear off. I predicted that in the long term, he would be the weaker of the two candidates for this very reason, and that he, not Hillary, would be the easier of the two for McCain to beat.

Divisiveness in the Democratic Party seems to be building just fine without trying to foment it...with the side effect of reinforcing HRC's renewed viability. I don't think I'm misunderstanding the argument, but I really don't think it's a good idea.

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Remember when Janet used to sing songs like "He Doesn't Know I'm Alive"? As often happens, the release of the new album has reminded me how much I love her old stuff, so I've been on a real Janet kick, and I was just thinking, you know, if she did a song with a similar storyline today, she'd be all like "He doesn't even know that I'm alive...so I hired a private detective to find out his address, put on my studded lilac pleather catsuit, got into my SUV, plowed it through the facade of his McMansion, stepped grandly out into his now open-air foyer, and introduced myself as Miss Janet Robo-Damita." I mean, rhyming and stuff, of course.

I guess that's not as interesting as it seemed a few minutes ago. Uh, have a good weekend, everyone.

The Nikkei has this wry little look at what the last day of work in 2007 was like in Kasumigaseki:

2007: a year in which issues from food frauds to the leakage of public pension records and corruption scandals revolving around the defense administration attracted attention. On 28 December, the last business day of the year, federal ministries and agencies in Kasumigaseki, Tokyo, and elsewhere welcomed the end of a year spent frantically dealing with all kinds of problems and moving offices. While an air of relief at long last has spread over the place, workers with harried expressions could be overheard muttering, "Let's hope next year, at least, is quiet."

There's the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries, shaken by the need to respond to revelation after revelation of fraudulent food packaging and with its minister's suicide and the subsequent dramatic changing of the guard.

Of course, there are plenty more scandals to incorporate into our splashy year-in-review segments: the court battle over damages for hepatitis C infectees (initiated by the old ones, not the most recent ones...or the old ones we're just recently finding out about, of course--keep them straight!) possibly most prominent among them. But there's also the latest textbook scandal (over how to present the role of the Japanese armed forces in mass suicides among Okinawan civilians during the Battle of Okinawa). And, uh, Prime Minister Abe, you know, resigned.

And the Ministry of Defense still isn't sure how it's going to defend us against extraterrestrials.

Any surprise everyone's looking forward to next year? Can't hardly wait.

That this announcement is not getting much attention is very suggestive:

At a 19 December meeting, Minister of Land, Infrastructure, and Transport Tetsuzo Fuyushiba and Minister of Interior Affairs Hiroya Masuda agreed to establish a new Tourism Agency in October 2008. The agency will be external to the MLIT. It will be geared toward attaining the goal of bringing the number of foreign travelers who visit Japan up to 10 million by 2010. This is the first new federal organization established at "agency" level since the Financial Services Agency in July 2000. Because the Marine Accident Inquiry Agency will be abolished, among other mergers and cuts in organizations, the total number of agencies in the government will not change.

...

The MLIT [justified] its budgetary application this way: "The establishment [of this new agency] will be indispensable in light of our goal of building Japan up as a tourist destination."

It's encouraging that the government is recognizing that Japan has been left (far) behind as the tourism sector has developed. A book could be written on how that happened--Alex Kerr has a whole chapter on it in Dogs and Demons. Japan has all the raw materials to be an industry powerhouse: an established global brand identity in both esoteric high culture and funky pop culture, a first-world standard of living, highly developed transportation infrastructure. It's expensive, but so are plenty of other favorite destinations for travelers. And for Americans and Europeans, it's certainly no harder to get to than Bali or Thailand.

And yet, there's plenty about the place that's forbidding and, I suspect, signals to people that it's not the place to come to relax. Japanese people are very helpful to tourists who stop and ask for directions on the street and such, but almost no one really speaks English, let alone French, German, Spanish, or Mandarin. That's true even in the big hotels and resorts. Friends of mine who work in hotel management can go on for hours about how difficult it is to get staff who can communicate effectively with guests and respond flexibly to their needs.

Speaking of being flexible, Japan famously isn't. That helps make the country safe and clean, but it can also make adventure difficult, even in interesting city neighborhoods. Establishments that don't want foreign customers tend to turn them curtly away at the door or, sometimes, allow them to enter and then just fail to serve them until they leave. (It wouldn't make the motivation any less obnoxious, but least a polite "I'm sorry, but we're just not set up to accommodate non-Japanese guests" would soften things a bit.) Resort design is intruded on by plasticky fixtures, and countryside views are intruded on by pylons and blocky buildings.

Enjoying Japan takes effort, and it leaves people a little worn out by the end of their stay. I have only fragmentary anecdotal evidence for this, but I suspect that when people go home from Japan and chat about it with their friends, what they convey is "Fascinating place! But being there felt so odd" rather than "Fascinating place! You really must go sometime!" People who come once don't have enough incentive to come back, and people who haven't been somehow always find reasons to visit other places first.

Of course, none of this matters intrinsically. Not being able to speak English is not a moral failing. The problem is that the noises the federal government is making indicate that Japan wants to get in on the lucrative tourism game, and I'm not sure that better ad campaigns in foreign countries address the real issues. But the move probably means more jobs for bureaucrats, which is always a good thing!

Japan's Central Council for Education (CCE) is about to release an unsual report: one that backtracks on major proposed policy change that would have provided "breathing room" in education. (That's essentially a euphemism for not keeping students spent with study and other organized activities from dawn through midnight, which is often what happens when private cram school is tacked onto regular public school.)

Rearranging public school curricula and instruction to make cram school redundant sounds like a great idea. Unfortunately, when you look at the actual planks in the platform, you can see how trouble resulted:

However, wave upon wave of criticism was leveled at the policy when the main guidelines were implemented. Due to the decrease in the number of classroom hours, "Students' fundamental study skills suffered" and "The gaps among individual children's motivation to learn widened."

The CCE report will cite the following points as failings it has identified: (1) The government had not been able to convey to instructors what "life force" referred to and why it was necessary. (2) The platform cited "cultivation of the ability to learn and think for oneself" as symbolic of "life force." However, this signaled such respect for children's autonomy that there was an increasing tendency on the part of instructors to hesitate to provide guidance. (3) The platform set up time for comprehensive learning, but how that was defined was not clearly communicated. (4) Classroom time was cut so drastically that there was no longer sufficient time for the acquisition of basic knowledge, and thinking and expressive skills were not cultivated. (5) The new guidelines were not based on the decreased ability of family and community to provide education.

Airy, nice-sounding abstractions that couldn't be implemented effectively because they weren't grounded in concrete requirements--sound familiar? One thing it's important to bear in mind is that that whole "life force" thing, which sounds as insubstantial as "self-esteem" when rendered into English, is by no means a New Age joke in Japan, where suicide among the young is high and researchers are constantly reporting that they meet a lot of exhausted and listless children. "Comprehensive learning" is also more than chic theory in an education system that has been known for feeding students lots of discrete facts but teaching them little in the way of how to synthesize them and weigh new evidence.

It isn't clear from the Yomiuri article how the CCE plans to move forward. It's stated, without elaboration, toward the end of the article that the council plans to retain the "life force" guidelines while specifying more clearly how it's to be guaranteed that classroom hours and moral/ethical education will be sufficient. It remains to be seen whether the revised guidelines will help teachers find the sweet spot between being authoritative and fostering inquisitiveness.

Added on 31 October: The Yomiuri English edition actually had a version of the article cited above. There's a follow-up today on the concrete proposed changes, too.

The Fukuda administration's approval figures remain respectable, according to a Yomiuri poll. The figures seem plausible, as do the reasons offered:

Compared with 85.5 percent approval for former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's Cabinet, 71.9 percent for former Prime Minister Morihiro Hosokawa's Cabinet, and 70 percent for the Cabinet of Fukuda's predecessor, Shinzo Abe, the approval rating was the fourth highest since the interview surveys--conducted within the honeymoon period of the inauguration of a new cabinet--began with a survey of support for the Masayoshi Ohira Cabinet in 1978.

The interview survey was conducted at 250 locations across the country on 3,000 eligible voters, with 1,812, or 60.4 percent, of respondents giving valid answers.

By gender, 63 percent of female respondents supported Fukuda while 54 percent of male respondents backed him. Forty-four percent of the respondents, the largest number, cited the "feeling of reassurance" the Cabinet gave them as the reason they supported Fukuda. On how long the Fukuda Cabinet should continue, 32 percent of respondents, the greatest number, said as long as possible, followed by 25 percent who said two to three years and 9 percent who said the Cabinet members should step down as soon as possible.

Koizumi shook things up. Abe screwed things up. Voters aren't unaware that they have to undergo more pain to deal with the most pressing social and economic issues, but their "please, not just yet..." attitude is not surprising. Fukuda's soothing, avuncular style fits right in.

People still break down along party lines over the refueling mission:

Forty-nine percent of pollees said the Maritime Self-Defense Force should continue its refueling operation in the Indian Ocean as part of Operation Enduring Freedom, while 37 percent opposed its doing so.

By political party, 69 percent of supporters of the Liberal Democratic Party backed the mission and 22 percent opposed it.

Of those who support the opposition Democratic Party of Japan, 32 percent were in favor of the operation and 59 percent were against it. Of unaffiliated voters, 39 percent of respondents supported it and 42 percent opposed it.

...

The DPJ is playing up its fight with the government and ruling coalition parties by sticking to its policy of opposing the continuation of the MSDF's refueling operation, but the survey might have an impact on the party's handling of the issue.

Meanwhile, Fukuda scored higher points than DPJ leader Ichiro Ozawa in leadership, political philosophy and goals, clarity and approachability.

A narrow majority of pollees said the opposition should make compromises with the coalition, which makes perfect sense in policy terms, since the DPJ et al. haven't offered a platform that distinguishes them much from the ruling coalition. They're against extending the refueling mission and (like everyone who happens to be out of power) very much morally affronted by all the corruption visible everywhere. But most of the other differences are in the details, many of which shouldn't be hard to trade horses over.

So the composition of Fukuda's cabinet is nearly the same as that of Abe's most recent one. (Two ministers who supported Taro Aso for prime minister were apparently surprised to be retained.) The approval rating for the new cabinet is 53%.

No, make that 59%.

Oops! I mean, 58%.

Whatever. It looks as if a majority-and-change of voters approve of the new Fukuda administration, though that may change once it's had a chance to start doing things. (And to look at it from another angle, 74% of eligible voters think the lower house should be dissolved at some point within the year.)

Most of us foreign bloggers who write about Japanese politics pay a lot of attention to foreign policy, for obvious reasons. But domestic policy is a potential cause for worry, too, in ways that could eventually affect the balance of power in East Asia.

There's been a lot of talk that the recent economic recovery has disproportionally benefited urban areas and [ominous radio soap opera organ music] "big business." Fukuda and Aso both made a point of talking about assistance to rural areas, which have traditionally been a crucial part of the LDP voting base. I can't find the Japanese report I originally saw, but the AP noted one of Fukuda's statements before the election:

"I'll seriously consider the rural problems and will listen to the voices of the residents," Fukuda, 71, said as he walked through a shopping arcade near a local train station. "I see a lot of shops that had been closed down. We must take care of the problem."

Reforms in recent years have allowed the economy's steady expansion after long years of stagnation, but critics say the benefits are limited to big corporations and are not reaching small business and rural towns.

Dissatisfaction over the slow economic recovery among rural voters was also considered a major cause for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party's loss in the July elections for the upper house of parliament.

I'm not sure that rural areas can realistically recover without undergoing even more pain in the short term. During the era of economic hypergrowth, Japan did not encourage its workers to expect shocks and be adaptable. Small, depopulating towns have done a terrible job of capitalizing on opportunities for tourism and niche-market manufacturing. (In that sense, they're following the leads of the major cities, with their ridiculous high-tech "new city" boondoggles, but at least the metro agglomerations have wealth-creating enterprises to counterbalance them.) The laws governing urban planning and large-scale retail stores have morphed over the years, and there's more regulatory control in the hands of local governments; but the fact remains that the poorest parts of Japan are places where the potential for cheap distribution is least capitalized on. Not that big corporations are benefiting solely because of greater efficiency and quality control; they know how to leverage their longstanding relationships with the bureaucrats that effectively regulate them to their benefit, too.

Japan is still stuck in the mindset of trying to predict and then micromanage the future. That may provide a comforting sense of stability in the short term, and it enables politicians to unveil grand plans that show they're "getting things done," but it's a recipe for disaster when the world changes in unanticipated ways. Me, what I anticipate is more rhetoric and economy-distorting subsidies.

No surprise here: Yasuo Fukuda will be the new LDP president. He's the same age (71) as his father, Takeo Fukuda, was when he became prime minister. Oddly for such an insider-driven country, he'll be the first child to succeed a parent to the position. (There are other children of former prime ministers active in politics, of course--Makiko Tanaka springs readily to mind.) My good friend and politics junkie Jun'ichiro commented the other day that Fukuda is a good technocrat but may not be a leader. I can see that. I'd have liked it if we could have had Taro Aso's foreign policy approach without his power lust and general jerkitude. Unfortunately, you have to take candidates as they are.

I like confrontation, so Fukuda's make-nice approach is not one I warm to easily, but I think it may actually work in the LDP's favor for the next few months. He's apparently planning to keep most key ministers in the cabinet, so there won't be another upheaval. And looking outside, the DPJ is open about wanting war (between the ruling and opposition coalitions, I mean), so if Fukuda comes on all friendly, it could make the opposition look petty and mean. Not the best image to have if you want a dissolution of the lower house of the Diet to work in your favor.

BTW, Will Wilkinson has a long post up about research into the moral dimensions of politics. One of his throwaway examples caught my attention:

Haidt's early research on moralized disgust shows that its cultural manifestations vary. The Japanese apparently find it disgusting to fail their station and its duties.

Well, I don't know that I would refer to that as a cultural "manifestation" of disgust, exactly. I think it's more accurate to say that the Japanese are acculturated in such a way as to attach reflexive, visceral disgust to dereliction of duty. Doing what you're told...being what you're told...is drilled into people to the point that it becomes second nature, so they tend to flinch with child-like "that's yucky!" horror when someone harshes the wa. (Many foreigners are driven bonkers by the Japanese tendency, when asked to do something that doesn't follow the usual rules, to grimace, pull the chin inward, and suck in the breath as if confronted with a slug in the salad.) From that vantage point, it's interesting to think about how the commentators reacted to Prime Minister Abe's sudden resignation. Faces registered shock but also revulsion. Of course, that's just my interpretation based on what I happened to see on television. But I really don't think I'm projecting.

Since we all know that polls are the last word in reliability, Yasuo Fukuda supporters can take comfort in last week's Asahi poll. 53% of voters polled preferred Fukuda as the new Prime Minister, while 21% supported Taro Aso.

Of course, that poll was taken on 15 and 16 September, and a lot can change in the run-up to an election. Fukuda and Aso appeared at Shibuya Station on Sunday to lay out their policy positions for the public, now that they're the only two remaining contenders for Prime Minister this coming weekend. The Asahi probably has the best overall summary. Both took care to play to the LDP's rural voting base by promising to address economic inequalities between urban and non-urban areas. (Aso assured voters that he did not support unbridled market liberalization and competition--as if we needed to be told that.)

They also addressed foreign policy:

Disturbed by the serious souring of Japan's relationships with China and South Korea during the Koizumi era, Fukuda was trying to mend the ties. Abe's visits to the two countries soon after he came to power have changed the atmosphere between Japan and these countries. But Fukuda appears to be hoping to bring fundamental changes to these important relations.

Aso vowed to promote the "arc of freedom and prosperity" initiative he proposed as Abe's foreign minister. This initiative is based on the idea of supporting countries that share such basic values as freedom and democracy. But his vision of the "arc" doesn't include China and is therefore criticized as an attempt to create a network of countries around China to contain the expansion of its regional influence.

Aso seems to be advocating a dual approach to dealing with China that combines dialogue with diplomatic maneuvering to put a brake on its influence.

There's a transcript of a lecture Aso gave about his "arc" vision here. It might be noted that he doesn't mention post-Soviet Russia as part of the "arc of freedom and prosperity" either, and in a way it comes off as a more pointed omission than China, because he discusses the democratization and EU membership of the Baltic States and the need for greater stability in Georgia and Ukraine.

The objective is for us to help democracy take root in a region that we envision as an 'arc of freedom and prosperity,' extending from the Baltic Sea to the Black and Caspian Seas.

Hmmm...any ideas what we might be arcing around? (He does mention the importance of improved relations with both the PRC and Russia at the beginning.)

North Korea, of course, is one of the biggest issues. The issue of the Japanese abductees is always in play here, and voters liked Aso’s firm line. Fukuda promises to take a more flexible approach:

In Osaka, both candidates addressed the North Korea abductee issue. Fukuda stated, “I want to be the one to solve this problem,” and his indicated that he had resolved to effect normalization of Japan-DPRK relations through dialogue. Aso stated emphatically, “Without pressure, no dialogue will get off the ground.”

Abe’s approach was to patch things up with economic heavy-hitters China and South Korea while taking a hard line toward economic empty set North Korea. It was popular. The abductee issue tends to be back-burnered in favor of nukes at the six-party talks, so Japan has essentially resigned itself to trying to resolve the problem with catch-as-catch-can support from its allies. But I’m not sure there is a resolution. The DPRK has been jerking around the families of abductees (notably poor Megumi Yokota’s parents) for years now. Maybe there is no approach that’s going to get Japan the information it wants.

It wasn’t just Fukuda’s position on the DPRK that came off as dithery; his delivery was shaky, too. Aso was more confident; on the other hand, he hides his lust for power about as well as Hillary Clinton does, and his glee at being in the running for the top spot was possibly a bit too naked. But there are plenty of points that could be scored and lost this week. And as the Asahi notes, neither of them really explained how he planned to work with the newly strengthened opposition parties. For now, Fukuda still has the support of all the major factions.

Wow. Shinzo Abe can't win for losing. Japan's opposition parties have been calling vociferously for his resignation for months. Yesterday he announced his resignation...and they're criticizing him for it.

Democratic Party of Japan President Ichiro Ozawa criticized Prime Minister Shinzo Abe for his abrupt resignation announcement on Wednesday.

"[Abe] had been scheduled to answer questions from party representatives about his policy speech at the Diet today, but he suddenly announced his resignation," Ozawa said at a press conference, adding that it was the first time in his political career of 40 years that he had witnessed a prime minister resigning within days of delivering a policy speech in the Diet. "To tell you the truth, I've no idea what was going through Prime Minister Abe's mind before he made the announcement."

Ozawa denied media reports that he had repeatedly rejected requests from Abe to hold talks with him. Ozawa said the first request from Abe came Wednesday morning through Liberal Democratic Party Diet Affairs Committee Chairman Tadamori Oshima to DPJ Diet Affairs Committee Chairman Kenji Yamaoka.

Well, it was pretty abrupt. I remember reading the report yesterday and thinking, What was it that made him decide this today? This morning he announced that he's going into the hospital to have gastrointestinal problems diagnosed, but commentators are divided over whether that was as big a factor as it's made out to be. Abe has exhausted all his political capital for the moment, but he's young. It's been rumored for ages that LDP higher-ups had been urging Abe to step down while he still had some dignity and could make a new bid for the prime minister's slot after a few more years of seasoning.

Who knows? Maybe that could still work. But as I see it, Abe has one major problem that no amount of experience is likely to correct: he lacks charisma. Utterly. Koizumi was the sort of man who commanded attention. If you were cooking or reading with the television on in the background, you stopped what you were doing and looked up when he started speaking. He was a natural focal point, in a way that went deeper than his haircut and Elvis fixation and all that stuff. When he staked his job on the passage of the Japan Post privatization bills, it was a serious showdown. His sternness and conviction had dimension and heft. You felt it, even when he was making compromises left and right in practice.

By contrast, when Abe staked his job on the passage of the extension of the anti-terrorism law, it was hard to get worked up (and I say that as a WOT-supporting American). Abe is clearly a skillful operator when it comes to negotiating with other politicians and playing them off one another--one does not become Prime Minister of Japan otherwise--but only to a certain point. That final promotion to political head of state brought the Peter Principle into play with a vengeance. The issues Abe's administration has had to contend with--evolving Japanese nationalism, relations with China and the Koreas, the extension of the MSDF mission, tankerloads of corruption scandals--require an alpha wolf. Even in consensus-loving Japan, people get the heebs when it seems as if there's no one in charge in the cabinet. Abe simply doesn't project authority.

On Wednesday, even Liberal Democratic Party Diet members close to Abe sternly criticized him after his resignation sent shock waves through the party.

"I'm disappointed in him as he's tossed out his administration," one of them said.

"How does he see the responsibilities of a prime minister?" another asked.

At a press conference in Sydney on Sunday after the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, Abe indicated that he would devote his energies to extending the refueling mission by the Maritime Self-Defense Force in the Indian Ocean, even at the cost of his job.

He gave the impression that he was determined to do his best to fulfill his international pledge of extending the MSDF mission by holding firm to his post.

In reality, however, those who took the prime minister at his word were mistaken.

One temporary advantage his successor will have is that he will have a ready excuse for seeming unprepared and needing a little time to find his balance. The opposition won big in the recent upper house election, but that wasn't the result of affection for the DPJ as much as it was the result of disgust with the LDP. Unfortunately, I'm not sure there are any LDP players in the running who can project moxie as leaders while making the compromises necessitated by the new balance of power in the Diet. I've always liked Yasuo Fukuda, who like Abe is a former Chief Cabinet Secretary. He also has experience in foreign affairs and came off as tough and clear-headed when delivering the Koizumi cabinet's policy statements to the press. He resigned amid the Social Insurance payment scandals of a few years ago, but there don't seem to be any contenders for power who are unsullied by scandal these days. We'll see soon enough who gets the nod.

Added on 14 September: Speaking of no-charisma public figures, Ann Althouse links to this whinefest by Demi Moore about how she can't get good parts because Hollywood doesn't know what to do with older women:

The 44-year-old told a magazine: "It's been a challenging few years, being the age I am. Almost to the point where I felt like, well, they don't know what to do with me. I am not 20. Not 30.

"There aren't that many good roles for women over 40. A lot of them don't have much substance, other than being someone's mother or wife."

Moore refurbished herself into a wrinkle-and-flab-free android--check out the two photos, and notice how spookily vinyl-ish she looks in the more recent one--but didn't address her failure to translate the bubbly, mischievous charm she projected during her Brat Pack days into adult terms.

The Minister of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries has resigned:

Before the election, calls had been growing from opposition parties for Akagi to either prove how the funds were used or resign. Some within the ruling coalition also grumbled that Akagi could become a liability in the campaign.

However, Abe refused to dismiss the farm minister, saying he does not intend to make the Akagi issue a problem.

...

With Akagi now out of the Cabinet, more questions may be raised about Abe's leadership ability and judge of character.

Abe appointed Akagi farm minister in June, after his predecessor, Toshikatsu Matsuoka, killed himself amid a similar scandal involving expenses for a rent-free office in the Diet members' building.

At least Akagi has apparently been able to escape with his life.

Polls opened for the House of Councillors (upper house) election this morning. The run-up has been contentious in a rather boring way, with cabinet members suffering from the usual misappropriation scandals and foot-in-mouth syndrome but none of the sense of momentousness of the Koizumi-era show-downs. I miss that guy. Even the Nikkei reports come off somewhat listless:

Issues such as pensions and "politics and money" are the points of contention in the twenty-first upper house election, for which voting began on the morning of 29 July. Ballot counting will begin today.

The focus is on whether the ruling or opposition coalition will capture the majority in the upper house. The results of the election will have a major influence on the overall political future of the Abe cabinet. The direction of the results is expected to be clear by late tonight.

According to the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, 16.93% of the electorate had voted by 11 a.m., exceeding by 0.21 percentage points the comparable figure for the last election in 2004.

Nevertheless, this could be a turning point. The DPJ-led opposition is not pushing a policy platform that differs all that much from that of the LDP this time around. It's focusing instead on accusing the LDP of fat cat syndrome--corruption and lack of transparency.

The office of agriculture/forestry/fisheries minister Norihiko Akagi obligingly ensured there would be a fresh LDP scandal blanketing the media this election weekend:

Farm minister Norihiko Akagi flew back from Beijing on Friday and landed in yet another political fund scandal--this one involving photocopied receipts to doubly book spending by his two political organizations.

The new irregularities were uncovered by The Asahi Shimbun, which obtained copies of Akagi's political fund reports from Ibaraki Prefecture under the information disclosure system.

...

Akagi has been under fire for huge and dubious office expenses reported by the support group based in his parents' home.

His mother at one time said the group rarely met at the home, and that she covered the utility bills.

Added later: What they're showing so far is 29 wins for the LDP and Shin-Komeito combined and 54 for the DPJ, Communist Party of Japan, and Social Democratic Party of Japan combined. Abe has said that he plans to think carefully about reshuffling his cabinet as a move to "take responsibility." JNN, one of the networks I've been flipping through, has been flashing viewer e-mails across the top of the screen. The running themes, not surprisingly, are "this is what the LDP gets!" and "we'll be watching you, DPJ!"

The Asahi ran a story yesterday that concludes that Japan's "lost generation" (those who came of age in the years following the bursting of the Bubble) is showing itself ready to assume the role in politics it's been avoiding. Based on the people profiled, I'm not so sure that's a good thing:

After she graduated from university in 1998, Yamamoto decided she wanted no part in "mass consumer society." Instead, she rented a 20-hectare farm in Niigata Prefecture and set about making a living through organic farming.

She barely managed and had to supplement her income by working part-time as a waitress at a nearby onsen. After two years, she gave up the farm and her job to volunteer her time and energy to local nonprofit activities.

She started by joining protests against the planned construction of a nuclear plant in the village of Maki. In 2003, she joined the village assembly. During this period, Yamamoto occasionally found odd jobs which paid little more than 200,000 yen a year.

While campaigning in a shopping district in downtown Niigata on July 15, Yamamoto emphasized that she understands what it's like to be young and poor.

...

As part of her campaign platform she pledges to correct the income and benefit disparity between full-time and part-time workers.

There's a certain droll logic to the idea that becoming a politician is the obvious next step for someone who's spent her adult life avoiding work that has market value and generates wealth. However, being newly engaged with the political system is not the same as having learned anything useful about policy. There's young and poor because you can't find any steady work, and then there's young and poor because you turn up your nose at the possibility of working in "mass consumer society."

Promising to "correct" disparities implies that it's a good idea for the government to continue the Japan Inc.-era practice of knob-twiddling with prices and wages--exactly the sort of behavior that helped the Bubble to inflate and burst in the first place. Perhaps, despite her overall failure as a farmer, Yamamoto managed to grow a money tree that she can use to make up the difference between freeters' value to the economy and what she thinks they should be paid. If not, the major problems remain bureaucratic drag and the contraction of the population, neither of which is addressed by the Diet hopefuls quoted by the Asahi.

The Asahi's editors approve of the new government anti-suicide laws (English version here):

Until now, it was common to dismiss suicide as a "problem for the individual." By contrast, the new basic law clearly designates suicide having "varying social factors" in its background. The policies this time around also situate suicide [in the context of being] a "death to which people are driven" and "a major loss for society as a whole."

Fine so far. Given that suicide really is a national problem, a federal program to provide hotlines and crisis centers doesn't seem like a bad use of money, at least in theory.

Unfortunately, if hardly atypically, the Asahi wiffs when it comes to confronting the "social factors" that need to be addressed. It goes by age group.

The guidelines stress the importance of helping young people with their personal development and mental-health management. But in addition, it is vital that they are taught more firmly from an early age to respect life.

...

Middle-aged and older men continue to be high suicide risks. This applies not only to men in their 60s with growing health concerns, but also to men in their 40s and 50s who are still in their prime.

Long working hours should be shortened to relieve stress. There should be help for people who have lost their jobs or filed for bankruptcy. Immediate treatment should be available at the earliest detection of depression. These measures are all in the guidelines, and they certainly are of help to prevent suicides.

The last sentence of the first paragraph cited above is a model of obtuseness. Rearing children in an environment with firm, reassuringly clear rules that still make room for their personalities to develop is not something you can do by just barking cheerily at them to respect life. Many, if not most, suicides among children in Japan are related to school pressure and bullying. Things are improving somewhat, but it's still common for teachers and school administrators to condone bullying; the response to complaints by the parents of victims tends to be, in effect, that it's their kid's problem for being so weird.

Once children grow into adults and take their place in the workforce, the pressures simply change form. Long work days in Japan are not associated with high output. (If offices simply learned to use their time more productively--rather than having workers spend their days generating redundant documents, attending meetings that proceed with all the celerity of a glacier gouging out a valley, and chasing down stamps of approval--working hours would shorten themselves.) Most people who commit suicide over work-related stress are probably tired from being at the office too much, yes; but I imagine that for most of them, the the constant feeling of being under observation and attendant pressure to stay in line are probably far greater factors.

I don't think Judeo-Christian theology accurately represents where we came from and where we go after death, but it must be said that it does offer individuals meaning and purpose outside themselves and beyond the reach of job and family stresses. That's not to say that Japan doesn't have a rich spiritual tradition of its own; it does. But in the post-war effort to regain a sense of national dignity by building up the economy, study and work became ends that seem, for many people, to have eclipsed other concerns. And now that economic growth is no longer a year-by-year given, it's no surprise that a lot of people are having trouble figuring out how to center themselves psychologically.

The West has its own problems with conformism, certainly; and plenty of Jewish and nominally Christian people commit suicide. Nevertheless, Japanese children do not really learn that it's okay to trust their own judgment when it differs from that of the collective, as long as they're following a reliable set of generally applicable moral principles. I'm not sure whether the mental health system, even with the cooperation of both public and private sectors, is going to be capable of helping individuals invest their lives with meaning.

Hmm.... This sounds oddly familiar:

The National Police Agency revealed on 13 June that 10,000 files that included police information appear to have been leaked from an employee's private PC over the Internet via the filesharing software Wini. It is possible that depositions and affidavits regarding police cases were included; the content and nature of the leaked data are being thoroughly investigated.

According to the current investigation, the employee (26) was a chief patrol officer in a regional division of the Kitazawa office. A PC he was using at home became infected with a virus, and approximately 9000 document files and 1000 photographic files that had been saved on it appear to have been leaked through Wini. The chief patrol officer explained of the leaked data, "I received it from the head of the patrol department of the regional division."

If you're thinking, Uh, gee, hasn't something like that happened before? the answer is, Why, yes, it has.

I'm surprised we haven't heard this sort of thing much more frequently before now:

The decision by four apparent North Korean defectors to brave 900 kilometers of open water in a small wooden boat to reach Japan suggests a level of desperation not seen before.

And it may signal that North Koreans are seeking out new routes to escape from the repressive regime in Pyongyang.

China traditionally was the route of choice. But after Beijing began to crack down out of consideration for its ties with North Korea, defectors started turning up all over Asia.

...

The arrival Saturday of four defectors at Fukaura port in Aomori Prefecture could well be an isolated case.

"It may just be random occurrence rather than an entirely new route," said a South Korean government official.

Possibly. But it wouldn't be difficult to believe that the PRC's tightening of border controls has convinced many would-be defectors that almost any alternative is better. There was that widely-linked Times Online story last year, detailing at least one "repatriation" of a refugee:

The [PRC] soldiers, who later told family members of the incident, marched the woman, who was about 30, to the mid-point of the bridge. North Korean guards were waiting. They signed papers for receipt of the woman, who kept her dignity until that moment. Then, in front of the Chinese troops, one seized her and another speared her hand -- the soft part between thumb and forefinger -- with the point of a sharpened steel cable, which he twisted into a leash.

'She screamed just like a pig when we kill it at home in the village,' the soldier later told his relative. 'Then they dragged her away.'

Of course, that's a third-hand account, so it's not certain whether every detail is accurate. It's certainly not hard to believe that the DPRK is making an extra effort to make an example of those who are returned after trying to escape.

Wow. Honor-saving suicide is common here, but rarely is it the way taken out by someone so high up in the government hierarchy:

Toshikatsu Matsuoka, the farm minister who stubbornly refused calls for his resignation over money scandals, died Monday after hanging himself at his Tokyo residence, government officials said.

...

He is the first incumbent Cabinet member to have committed suicide since the current Constitution took effect, and the seventh Diet member since the end of World War II.

...

Opposition lawmakers in the Diet as well as the media had demanded Matsu-oka explain shady expenditures by his fund-management group for utilities and other costs for his office. He refused.

He was also criticized for political donations that allegedly came from organizations connected to a bid-rigging scandal.

The Asahi article doesn't elaborate on the utilities thing, but my understanding--I haven't been following the story all that closely, but it's been in the news a lot--is that he double-charged for utilities, getting reimbursements for charges that were already covered by the Diet. There's already been a raid on a semi-governmental agency in relation to the bid-rigging charge.

Added later: I meant to link to the Nikkei story, which I didn't quote except in the post title but which was where I first saw the news. Somehow I forgot. Of course, since this morning, there's been time for all the relevant parties in the Abe administration to get their (stunned) comments in. Reuters sums up pretty well in English. Interestingly, the Yomiuri is reporting on the Reuters report, among others. Headline: "Suicide of Agriculture Minister Matsuoka 'will be serious blow to Abe administration,' say major foreign news services." It's not that they needed the AP to tell them that, of course; what's presumably of interest is that the foreign press has latched onto the political significance of the event faster than the Japanese media. Since this is a local story, we've been mostly hearing about what kind of hook Matsuoka was hanging on and what tie his aide was wearing when he discovered the body. Well, okay, it's not that bad, but you get the idea.

Minister of the Environment Wakabayashi is set to become acting Minister of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries on 30 May. The Asahi has posted a roundup (in the original Japanese) of Matsuoka's more choice soundbites in response to charges of malfeasance.

BTW, if you're wondering about that quotation from Abe, I think what he originally said that was translated as "I am overwhelmed with shame" was "慙愧に堪えない," and it's not entirely clear what he was referring to. Shame that a minister under his leadership was driven to suicide? Shame that he didn't manage the scandals better before they ended up here? Everyone is going to be watching how he maneuvers in the next few days.

The bill for the restructuring of United States military forces stationed in Japan was passed yesterday. There are still complaints about its incentives for municipalities that will be taking installations. The federal government (of Japan, I mean, of course) will be providing subsidies:

However, for some in the opposition parties and the regional governments affected, opposition remained deep-rooted, and there remained a lack of transparency about the progression of the development plan: "The autonomous judgment of region[al governments] will be distorted."

The Yomiuri has an English report. It's hard to dispute that offering subsidies tends to motivate local governments to play along as they must to get them, even if it's something they (or their citizens) might not otherwise like. But this is hardly a special case in that regard, and at least military installations serve a more obvious purpose than cultural halls and multi-lane highways to depopulated hamlets. Bases, nuclear facilities, and waste treatment plants all have to go somewhere.

Should we laugh or cry?

Despite being one of the world's major financial centers, with large scale securities, foreign exchange and bond markets, the number of subsidiary and branch offices of foreign financial institutions in the city has fallen by almost one-third over the past decade.

The Urban Renaissance Headquarters, chaired by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, and the Financial Services Agency will work together to develop a district where overseas businessmen can go about their day-to-day lives speaking English by providing condominiums, day care centers and medical facilities for foreign residents near Tokyo Station.

The plan also envisages spacious new offices specifically designed for foreign financial institutions, to be offered in high rise buildings.

According to the sources, the FSA will discuss its proposal with foreign executives to better understand their needs, with a view to starting to draw up plans some time this year.

Ah, yes--a JAL Pak Tokyo Village for foreigners! (And it's to be modeled on the City of London. No chance of that turning out kitschy.)

It's already an easy task to find housing, medical care, and other services provided in English. Much of it is expensive, but that's hardly a worry for people here on expat packages. Spacious offices can be difficult to come by, even for big-guns foreign financial institutions, but providing them in yet another gaijin ghetto (there's one in the Azabu-Hiroo-Roppongi-Aoyama area that seems to do its job perfectly well already) is not going to draw them back to Tokyo. Money flows where there's a dynamic economy with ascendant opportunities for investment.

One of the big news stories this weekend is the fatal accident at an amusement park in Osaka. A car on a roller coaster derailed and listed. One woman collided with a rail and was killed, and a few dozen people were rushed to the hospital. (Well, some of the English stories say "seats," but it was apparently one of those rides on which you stand and have your torso held in by an overhead harness-type thing.) Not surprisingly, it's suspected that lax enforcement of safety standards is the culprit:

In February, the amusement park took the roller coaster apart for inspection. However, it said it did not inspect the integrity of the axle shaft because there was no garage available at the time. The park subsequently postponed the inspection until May 15.

The police suspect improper safety management may have led to the accident, and are investigating the amusement park on suspicion of professional negligence resulting in death and injury.

And at a different amusement park, there was another accident--this one a sort of fender-bender with nothing more serious than nausea resulting, luckily, though it still gives one cause for worry:

Four people were taken to hospital after a roller coaster car carrying a parent and child rear-ended another car carrying a parent and child at about 2:50 p.m. Saturday at Wonderland amusement park in Sakai, Fukui Prefecture. The four complained of feeling nauseous after the collision.

Local police questioned employees of the amusement park on suspicion of professional negligence resulting in injuries.

Two accidents in one weekend don't constitute an epidemic of safety violations, but they do indicate a problem that's very real with infrastructure, industry, and public accommodations here: No one really knows where the accidents waiting to happen are, because government oversight of safety is erratic. There are some cases in which the evidence is heartening. Transportation authorities have been riding JAL hard over safety violations, for example, and they haven't needed an airliner crash to motivate them to do so. The Aneha scandal literally hit the Japanese where they live, but it was brought to light before an real, live catastrophic earthquake revealed that all those fraudulently certified buildings weren't actually safe. But in other sectors--nuclear power, toxic waste disposal, and pharmaceuticals are big ones--one wonders whether things are actually humming along generally well or it's only a matter of time before luck runs out.

Having returned from his visit to the United States, Prime Minister Abe is pressing forward with what he hopes will be his legacy: constitutional revision. Because it's the sort of issue that interests foreign readers, the English-side sites of the major Japanese dailies are covering things pretty thoroughly. The Asahi has the major players mapped out:

Abe has yet to secure support from the opposition camp, notably Minshuto, on this issue. For this reason, there is uncertainty about whether Abe will be able to amend the Constitution under his current Cabinet.

Akihiro Ota, chairman of New Komeito, the LDP's junior coalition partner, sounded a warning Thursday to LDP lawmakers who want to start deliberations on constitutional amendments immediately after the national referendum bill passes the Diet.

...

The same day, Naoto Kan, acting head of Minshuto, lashed out at Abe's pro-amendment stance at a symposium in Tokyo.

Noting that Abe became prime minister through the postwar democratic political system, Kan said it is "extremely contradictory" for him to now seek to "break away from the postwar regime."

Kan's original Japanese words are in the original Japanese article: 「首相は戦後レジーム（体制）の脱却というが、民主主義（の下で）の総理大臣がレジームを変えるのは、極めて論理矛盾だ。」 There's the upcoming election, so the DPJ needs to come out swinging against the LDP; but I'm still not entirely sure what Kan is swinging at. Abe knows that he has to adhere scrupulously to proper procedure in connection with an undertaking as delicate and controversial as constitutional revision, and the proposed revisions themselves hardly represent a turn away from democracy. The revision of Article 9 will, it is hoped, give Japan a standing army and specify that citizens are responsible for defending their country. Everything else that I'm aware of is a set of blandishments about the essence of Japaneseness and the addition of "environmental rights." (Given Japan's generally unprepossessing built environments and current treatment of nature, it's a good thing that's not already in the constitution, or we'd have a violation-of-rights crisis of nationwide proportions. See this article about a recent federal study that found that Japan's shorelines are festooned with about 148,000 cubic meters of washed-up junk, much of it originating inland and disgorged into the sea from Japan's rivers.) Oh, and I think there's a vaguely-phrased right-to-privacy provision. The Yomiuri has a little more detail on the major points of debate.

Those who remember the '80s may be amused to read that former Prime Minister Yasuhiro Nakasone has griped that the proposed new preamble lacks euphony, as documents written by committee are wont to do.

Interesting week in Japan. Livedoor's Takafumi Horie has been sentenced to 2.5 years for securities law violations:

Horie, the 34-year-old founder of Internet services company Livedoor Co., pleaded innocent to the charges of window-dressing and stock market manipulation.

He argued that he was simply the victim of a witch hunt by prosecutors who had concocted a story to punish the young businessman who shook up the Japanese business world with his aggressive tactics.

But the court sided with the arguments of the prosecutors.

"He illegally boosted his company's share price by announcing fake business performances," Judge Kosaka said. The crimes "could not possibly have been conducted without (Horie's) instructions and approval."

From what I can tell, neither side is entirely in the right. Horie is right that the business-bureaucratic machine left over from the Japan Inc. era hates him for succeeding without playing their game. There is no doubt in my mind that the prosecution and other government agencies involved investigated every potential charge with grim, intense relish. But this isn't the Japanese version of the Martha Stewart case; Horie was pretty clearly involved in real violations, though the court disagreed with the prosecution's contention that he'd masterminded the whole shell game.

Turning to coverups of a more frequent kind, we see that yet another nuclear power plant operator failed to report an accident:

Hokuriku Electric Power Co., known as Hokurikuden, failed to report a criticality accident in 1999 at its nuclear power plant in Shikamachi, Ishikawa Prefecture, in which there was an uncontrollable chain reaction for 15 minutes, the government and the power company said Thursday.

On June 18, 1999, three of the 89 control rods inserted from underneath into the reactor core suddenly slipped out during a regular checkup at Shika Nuclear Power Station, causing the reactor to reactivate.

The reactor was not automatically stopped and the chain reaction lasted for 15 minutes. But the company did not sufficiently inspect the cause, and failed to keep records of the accident or report it to the government.

...

Nobody was exposed to radiation, however, because there were no workers near the reactor in the building at the time of the accident.

One of the operating errors stemmed from an erroneous description in the procedure manual for operating the water pressure control valve.

That's just what we want in operations manuals for nuclear facilities, huh? Erroneous descriptions of equipment! There seems to have been no major threat to human life here; the point is that we hear about these little mishaps based on slack procedure or faulty maintenance at power plants every few months. And it's not as if it were always the same power company. The problems seem more systemic than that.

The Chinese premier is set to visit Japan in April. Head-of-state visits were suspended a few years ago, mostly over the Yasukuni Shrine pilgrimages and history textbooks:

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao will visit Japan for three days from April 11, government sources said Thursday.

Wen will meet Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on the first day of his trip and then plans to visit Kyoto.

This will be the first visit by a Chinese leader in about seven years--the last such visit was made by former Premier Zhu Ronji in October 2000.

China initially proposed a weeklong visit for Wen from April 9-15, but this was cut short because he decided to visit South Korea before coming to Japan. As a result, Wen's planned appearance on Japanese television for direct interaction with the public will be canceled. Even so, Wen still plans to make a speech in the Diet--the first Chinese premier ever to do so.

Presumably, Wen and Abe will discuss the DPRK, those disputed gas and petroleum fields in the East China Sea, and trade policy. Neither side likes the other's nationalists.

Abe's cabinet line-up was publicized on Tuesday. The Japan Times has an English list attached to its article on the announcement that unfortunately doesn't contain the brief biographies from the print edition. Different commentators have different prognostications to offer, as always, but most agree that what will be most important to pay attention to is how the Abe government decides to prioritize and compromise. The cabinet members and advisors who are personal allies of his are almost uniformly hard-right in their public positions, but much of the rest of the LDP isn't. Besides, some of Abe's policy goals are, on their face, at odds with each other. (I'll be interested to see how he manages to repair relations with China while also scotching its plans to become the preeminent regional economic and political power and increasing Japan's military autonomy.)

Speaking of which, Abe has not stated one way or another whether he plans to visit the Yasukuni Shrine as prime minister. He was, however, questioned about it this morning:

The first questioner from the Democratic Party of Japan was party leader Yukio Hatoyama, who raised the point that the prime minister is coordinating visits to the PRC and ROK without having stated clearly whether he will make pilgrimages to the Yasukuni Shrine. Hatoyama criticized the prime minister: "This is going to turn into Jun'ichiro Koizumi, the Second Act--losing trust [from China and Korea] through evasive maneuvers."

Touching on the prime minister's [previous] argument that "thinking that requires separating Class-A war criminals from others is off-target," Hatoyama pressed him: "Just where does responsibility lie?"

The second act part is originally 二の舞 (ni no mai: "second dance"), usually used when you fail in the same way as someone else by making the same dumb mistakes. Abe is, if anything, more combative about the Yasukuni issue than his predecessor was. Koizumi's line was, to the extent that one could get meaning from it, that it was possible to pay respect to those who'd served Japan in good faith while leaving the malefactors to whatever reward/retribution had been served to them in the next life.