Predictably, the
lead editorial in this morning's
Nikkei is headlined "US Midterm Elections Reflect Iraq Dilemma." The unwritten subhead is "Does This Mean Japan Is Screwed?"
In the mid-term elections for United States congress and state governorships and such, held in the off-years between presidential races, it's usual for the president's party to lose seats.
In that sense, the results this time around are not a surprise. However, it seems that they bear witness to a rise in dissatisfaction with the Bush administration revolving around the ongoing circumstances in Iraq--the Democrats have recaptured the majority in the House after twelve years and gained seats in the Senate. The Bush administration has not discovered a way to extricate itself from its dilemma in Iraq.
...
Everyone reasons that if the [Iraqi] economy improves public order will also be restored; but the current reality is that because public order hasn't been restored, the economy has not improved. No method has been found to stop this vicious cycle and reverse the trend.
The option of restoring stability through a large-scale increase in the deployment of US military personnel has not gained political support within the US; nor has it gained the support of the Iraqi government.
The argument for complete withdrawal that had been advanced by part of the Democratic Party could result in the abandonment of Iraq, leaving it to become a breeding ground for international terrorists. This is the mistake that has already been made in Afghanistan.
The argument for phased withdrawal, after strengthening Iraqi infrastructure [to maintain] stability, appears to be rational. But the deepening opposition of Sunni and Shia elements makes prospects difficult to assess.
...
A government in which the Republicans hold the White House and the Democrats have taken the leadership of the congress also existed during the Reagan and Bush [I] administrations in the 1980s. It was called "gridlock," and it prevented efficient decision-making. Will history repeat itself?
Now, of course, one of the reasons the
Nikkei is paying attention to elections in the United States is that they're important to geopolitics in general. But there's plenty at stake for Japan specifically, too. The role of the military here is a hot topic, made ever hotter by movements in the PRC and the DPRK. Russia isn't making many noises at the moment, but it's never far from the Japanese mind. Japanese politicians have generally perceived the GOP as invested in maintaining close US-Japan security ties. Even those who are not eager to do so are, like most of the global media, interpreting the results of Tuesday's election as a direct rebuke to the Bush administration on national security and Iraq; it's not clear how that will affect strategic policy in East Asia, but plenty of people are worried.
