The White Peril 白禍

There have been some updates to ongoing stories here:

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The president of JR East has reportedly hinted that he will resign. It kind of seems a shame, because for once, we may be looking at a genuine freak accident:

The sources said the Construction and Transport Ministry's Aircraft and Railway Accidents Investigation Commission believes a microburst may have caused the accident mainly because an anemometer placed near the accident site had recorded winds of only 72 kph at the time an express train on East Japan Railway Co.'s Uetsu Line derailed.

A microburst produces winds of 252 kph or greater in small areas with a radius of only several hundred meters to two kilometers.

According to investigations by the commission and other parties, a cold front was passing through the Shonaimachi area, generating thunderclouds at the time of the accident. Thunderclouds are thought to cause microbursts--a phenomenon in which cool air rushes to the surface in an intensely localized area, resulting in strong downdrafts.

Aviation weather experts have paid more attention to the sudden gusts, as they have led to fatal airplane crashes during takeoff or landing. But because a microburst is locally formed and does not last long, they prove difficult to predict.

There seems to be evidence that the bridge and artificial embankment were constructed in such a way as to force the air through in a sort of wind-tunnel effect; but at the same time, the driver was going well below the speed limit for that stretch of rail in those reported conditions. It's good to see JR East talk about installing new meters in the area, but if we're talking about something akin to wind shear in airline flights, perfect safety is going to be impossible to achieve.

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It's a bit late in the game, but two DPRK agents with major involvement in the 1970s abductions of Japanese citizens from beaches have been identified:

Two North Korean agents have been identified as the perpetrators responsible for abducting two couples who have since been repatriated to Japan, sources said Friday.

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North Korean leader Kim Jong Il said some people in the intelligence agency "fell into blindly motivated patriotism and heroism," when he admitted in September 2002 that North Korea was responsible for abducting Japanese.

However, police authorities suspect that some of the abductors held important positions that could influence the agency's decision-making, because Sin, who was arrested in South Korea in February 1985 and then transferred to Pyongyang in September 2000, has been treated as a hero at home.

According to Hitomi Soga, 46, who was repatriated along with the couples, Sin served as a tutor for her and her fellow abductee Megumi Yokota. Soga and Yokota were forcibly taken to North Korea in August 1978 and November 1977, respectively.

Hitomi Soga, of course, is the wife of US Army deserter Charles Jenkins.

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The man whose wife and two sons were killed by toxic hydrogen sulfide gas at an Akita Prefecture hot spring resort area has died. He never regained consciousness.

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Oh, and I don't think I mentioned this yet, did I? The government is freaking because the population of Japan has begun to decline earlier than had been projected:

The Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications on Tuesday confirmed what could be the start of a prolonged crisis for Japan: The nation's population is already shrinking.

The ministry released provisional figures that show the population on Oct. 1 was about 19,000 fewer than the estimated 127.776 million of October 2004.

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Populations in 32 of the 47 prefectures fell since the last official count. Nine prefectures--Nara, Fukui, Nagano, Ishikawa, Yamanashi, Ibaraki, Miyagi, Gifu and Gunma--recorded gains between 1995 and 2000, but this time around, all nine prefectures saw population decreases. Akita Prefecture had the biggest drop, at 3.7 percent from the level five years ago.

The census results showed a trend toward population shifts to major metropolitan areas.

Tokyo had the biggest population gain, at 510,000, a 4.2-percent rise over the last census. Kanagawa Prefecture recorded a gain of 300,000, or 3.5 percent more, and Aichi Prefecture an increase of 210,000, or 3 percent more people.

Other prefectures boasting larger populations were Okinawa, with a 3.2-percent rise thanks mainly to a large number of births, and Shiga, with a 2.8-percent rise because of an increase in commuters to the Osaka and Kyoto areas.

The country gained 2.47 million households in the period, or 5.2 percent, to reach a total 49.53 million.

While there were more households in all 47 prefectures, the average number per household fell to 2.58, from 2.7 in the 2000 census.

The increase in metro area populations is actually rather interesting; given the much-publicized J-turn phenomenon of the 90s, it likely means not that people are moving into urban cores but that they're moving into bed towns that are part of contiguous areas of high population density.

From the Japan Defense Agency:

The Japan Defense Agency and the Self-Defense Forces are adding muscle to their defense preparations designed to respond to a hypothetical attack by the PRC's People's Liberation Army on, for example, Ishigaki Island or the Senkaku Islands in Okinawa Prefecture. In January, the Ground Self-Defense Force will conduct its first joint remote island defense training with with United States Marine Corps. The Maritime Self-Defense Force will set its hand to developing Advanced Lightweight Torpedos in order to boost its response capabilities toward Chinese submarines.

The G-SDF will dispatch 125 personnel from the Western Army infantry regiment [link] (Sasebo City, Nagasaki Prefecture) to San Diego, CA, from 9 - 27 January. It will conduct reconnaissance training to facilitate landing and information gathering on a remote island that could conceivably be occupied. In addition to studying swim-based reconnaissance at the USMC reconnaissance school, the G-SDF will undergo ground training and acquire know-how for planning on-land assaults that incorporate complex conditions such as climate.

For its part, the SDF has (at least as of 2004, presumably the last year for which finalized records exist) increased the amount of assistance--supplies, equipment, transportation--it gives to the US military:

The number of cases in which the Self-Defense Forces provided supplies or support for the U.S. military more than tripled in fiscal 2004 from the previous year, the Defense Agency said.

The increase stems from a 2004 revision to the acquisition and cross-servicing agreement (ACSA), enabling the SDF to provide such assistance to the U.S. military even during routine training drills.

The agreement was originally intended only for U.N. peacekeeping operations or joint training drills.

But Tokyo and Washington have become increasingly interdependent in terms of military cooperation. In addition, enhancing Japan's role in logistics support for U.S. troops is part of an interim report on U.S. military realignment.

According to the Defense Agency, the SDF provided goods and services to the U.S. military in response to requests 212 times between April and December 2004.

For all of fiscal 2003, the figure was 67.

BTW, specifically regarding PRC-Japan relations, the latest conflict is over the suicide of a Japanese consul stationed in Shanghai. The Japanese government says Chinese officials pressed him to reveal information about Japan's policies regarding disputed islands. That incident was not, BTW, a factor in the results of a recent cabinet poll:

Fewer Japanese than ever feel well disposed toward China, with a Cabinet Office survey finding only about one-third of respondents had positive feelings about the country and a record-high 63.4 percent did not, according to the poll released Saturday.

The favorable response toward China fell 5.2 percentage points from the previous survey in 2004 to 32.4 percent, marking its lowest level since such questions were first asked in 1978.

The percentage of respondents who did not have positive feelings about China was up 5.2 percentage points from the 2004 survey, surpassing the 60 percent line for the first time.

A Cabinet Office official commented, "It may have been affected by large-scale anti-Japanese demonstrations across China and disputes between the two nations over the development of gas fields in the East China Sea and other issues."

The survey was conducted on 3,000 people aged 20 or older nationwide in early to mid-October. The response rate was 58.5 percent.

Concerning Japan-China ties, 71.2 percent, up 10.2 points from last year, said relations were not good, with 19.7 percent, down 8.4 points, saying relations were positive.

Figures for the ROK dropped also, but they remained above 50 percent.

Finally, apropos of nothing: the compound that means "torpedo" is 魚雷 (gyorai: "fish" + "thunder"), which I think is just about the coolest thing ever. Land mines are known as 地雷 (jirai: "earth" + "thunder").

Prime Minister Koizumi is putting the most kindly light on Democratic Party of Japan leader Maehara's recent rejection of the idea of fuller cooperation with the ruling coalition:

On 16 December, Prime Minister Jun'ichiro Koizumi spoke about DPJ leader Seiji Maehara's denial of the possibility of a "broad alliance" with the LDP: "As the head of the opposition party, he had no choice but to say such a thing." Koizumi went further and stated, "The world of politics is difficult to predict even in the short-term. In Germany, such cooperation had been said to be impossible, but it came to pass," suggesting once again that a broad alliance [was feasible]. He was responding to questions from the press corps at the Prime Minister's residence.

Regarding the wave upon wave of criticisms leveled at Maehara at the [DPJ] party convention, Koizumi gave the DPJ leader a shout-out: "Being in a leadership position is tough. I hope Mr. Maehara will see things through and ride out his current difficulties."

That last reference to "Mr. Maehara" may be a noun of direct address, but that doesn't really affect the basic meaning. Maehara has been relatively quiet. You see him quoted frequently, of course--he's the opposition leader, after all--but his comments rarely have the irritability of Katsuya Okada's. Of course, that could mean either that he's shrewdly buying his time or that he realizes how green he is and is steering a middle course out of fear that he'll make a misstep. Or some of both.

BTW, Maehara, one of whose distinguishing characteristics is his higher level of hawkishness than previous DPJ leaders, intimated to the press on a visit to Okinawa that he could be prepared to agree to a special provision to shift land use rights from Naha to Tokyo in order to implement the transfer of US military facilities at Futenma. On the other hand, he's criticized the government's current treatment of the Okinawa government: "When restructuring specific [military] bases, close consultation with--and consent of--regional government entities, is indispensable; but [the approach] this time around was extremely crude. It demonstrated contempt [for Okinawa]." Tension between the capital and the provinces is a fact of life for every large, complex society I'm aware of, and in Japan, things are especially prickly between Tokyo and Okinawa.

Okinawa has its own distinct language and history and sorely resents being treated, as it views things, like the mainland's trash dump. The locals don't like putting up with the off-hours behavior of military personnel and the foreign control of large swaths of land, but they'd be in an economic pickle if we left, and they know it. Regarding US military installations, of course, things aren't black and white. Okinawa is the poorest prefecture in Japan. Having our bases there brings in money and creates jobs. The US could probably learn to cultivate a more friendly manner toward its sub-tropical hosts, but I'm not sure how much good that would do when the far more long-term problem is with the deep rift between Tokyo and Naha.

A joint missile initiative between Japan and the US is moving ahead:

On 15 December, the government opened meeting on national security at the Prime Minister's residence, entering into proceedings to move joint Japan-US technological research on next-generation missile defense systems into the development phase starting in 2006. The Japan Defense Agency explained that development expenditures over nine years will total US $2.1 to 2.7 billion, and that Japan is coordinating with the United States under a plan for Japan to shoulder US $1.0 to 1.2 billion of that burden.

The missile type in question is the Aegis, which is ship-based.

Added at 11:30: The US and Japan are also set to run joint ground exercises:

The Ground Self-Defense Force and the U.S. Marine Corps will carry out the first bilateral joint drill off the west coast of the United States in January to infiltrate a remote island and regain control of it from an enemy, sources said Thursday.

Until recently, U.S. forces have been reluctant to carry out joint exercises with Japan on a remote island in an effort to avoid possible confrontation with China.

The decision, however, was made to demonstrate bilateral cooperation in Okinawa Prefecture and the Southwest Islands against China, which has been rapidly boosting its military capability in the last few years.

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The map exercise incorporates exchanging gunfire with the enemy to regain control of the island.

"The U.S. marines are superior to the GSDF in terms of combat capability. The drill is aimed at learning the basics in landing operations, including infiltration, from the marines. The exercise levels will be increased as the drill continues," a senior GSDF officer said.

About 600 islands lie off the Kyushu and Okinawa regions, however, GSDF bases are located only on the main island of Okinawa and Tsushima island in Nagasaki Prefecture. The Southwest Islands are poorly protected by Japan's defense system.

Whenever I bring this sort of thing up, someone inevitably asks, "Do you really expect China to attack Japan?" And, well, no, I don't think anyone really does, given things as they are now. The state of the PRC military makes a coup against the CCP appear unlikely, and CCP itself, mindful of its in many ways tenuous grip on power, would be foolish to launch an assault against Japan. But circumstances can change very quickly; and besides, purely from the standpoint of basic readiness, it's simply ridiculous for Japan--prosperous and insular as it is--not to have solid plans for defense against a large, restless neighbor with a historical pattern of hostility toward Japan. As the Asahi glancingly notes, the point of the exercise is also to impress upon other players in the region that the US and Japan partnership is firm.

Prime Minister Koizumi and DPJ leader Maehara are nearing an agreement on constitutional revision, kind of:

On 9 December, Prime Minister Jun'ichiro Koizumi indicated a desire cooperate with the Democratic Party of Japan on constitutional revision. Concerning his continued active pursuit of dicsussion about [the need to] approve collective self-defense with DPJ leader Seiji Maehara, he related, "Mr. Maehara has been an advocate of constitutional revision from a while back. From here on, I think that there are points on which he will be able to cooperate with the LDP."

Maehara positioned himself as notably more hawkish than other existing DPJ leaders--certainly including the colorless Katsuya Okada. (Remember him?)

The cabinet has officially voted to extend the SDF deployment in Iraq:

The Cabinet on Thursday approved the extension of the Self-Defense Forces' mission to assist reconstruction in Iraq for a year beyond next Wednesday's deadline.

"We decided to extend the mission for two reasons: Iraq is on its way toward establishing a democratic government, and the U.N. [Security Council] has unanimously decided to extend the deployment of multilateral forces there," Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi told a news conference after the Cabinet meeting.

The new basic plan for the SDF's Iraq mission states that the troops' mandate will expire on Dec. 14, 2006. But it also indicates the deployment can be shortened should Australian and British forces providing the Japanese personnel with a security umbrella decide to pull out.

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Prior to the Cabinet meeting Thursday, Koizumi had a series of meetings with leaders of coalition partner New Komeito and opposition parties to obtain their understanding in extending the Iraqi mission.

There's no report of any substantive agreement, but Minister of Foreign Affairs Taro Aso met with Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld in Washington yesterday. Japan related its plan to extend the SDF deployment in Iraq and also emphasized that the restructuring of US military facilities here in Japan is running into opposition from the places affected (such as Okinawa). Rumsfeld would like to see China fulfill a constructive role in world society, including transparency about its military spending. Japan affirmed that it would like to expand its own international role and would prefer, really, to avoid being blown up by the DPRK. So everything is as per usual; if there are interesting developments, I assume we'll hear about them.

The Iraqi Prime Minister will visit Japan on 5 December:

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced on 1 December that Prime Minister of Iraq [Ibrahim] al-Jaafari is scheduled for a two-day visit to Japan, beginning 2 December, during which he will meet with Prime Minister Jun'ichiro Koizumi. It is al-Jaafari's first visit to Japan. He is expected to request once again that the deployment of SDF personnel in Iraq be extended. His visit is at Japan's invitation, and [he and Japanese officials] will exchange views about the status of Iraq's reconstruction and support [Japan can offer] from here forward.

This is about the fiftieth time we've seen news that the extension of the SDF deployment has somehow become official, so perhaps the request next week will just be a face-to-face formality.