The White Peril 白禍

The Iraqi Prime Minister will visit Japan on 5 December:

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced on 1 December that Prime Minister of Iraq [Ibrahim] al-Jaafari is scheduled for a two-day visit to Japan, beginning 2 December, during which he will meet with Prime Minister Jun'ichiro Koizumi. It is al-Jaafari's first visit to Japan. He is expected to request once again that the deployment of SDF personnel in Iraq be extended. His visit is at Japan's invitation, and [he and Japanese officials] will exchange views about the status of Iraq's reconstruction and support [Japan can offer] from here forward.

This is about the fiftieth time we've seen news that the extension of the SDF deployment has somehow become official, so perhaps the request next week will just be a face-to-face formality.

While Atsushi and I were spending the weekend shopping, eating, and otherwise amusing ourselves, the news cycle kept going. The Hayabusa landed successfully on Itokawa (its second attempt) and gathered its samples; the project manager was apparently elated at the press conference, as well he should be. This article from the English Yomiuri gives more information about the mission itself and its significance.

When discussing the possibility of an attack by the PRC on Taiwan, people don't seem to say a whole lot about Taiwan's own army. Usually, the discussion is framed in terms of whether the US or Japan would have to enter the fray and what that would mean. This (via Simon) isn't a blog I'm familiar with, but the writer seems to know what he's talking about, and what he discusses is, precisely, how ready is Taiwan to defend itself against the PRC? His conclusions ring true based on the societies he's describing. The PRC army is run the way you'd expect it to be: corruptly, nepotistically, back-scratchingly, and patronage-ly. The ROC army has morale problems because it's conscription-based and, apparently, plagued by a sense that it would lose in a war with the mainland:

The primary difference between the two forces is the quality of training. The training of the Chinese military has been described as ranging "from spotty to poor." Taiwan’s forces, on the other hand, train to Western standards under a cadre of American educated and trained officers and NCOs. They are generally considered to be proficient at the application of military force with the exceptions noted above.

I wonder whether Taiwan has ever asked Israel for guidance on these things. Israelis serve mandatory IDF stints, and they're surrounded by enemies who think the land is rightfully theirs. Maybe commitment is better in Israel precisely because it is attacked regularly? In any case, MeiZhongTai (spelled 米中台, says the author, for obvious reasons) has provided an interesting read on the topic.

Ooh! This is cool:

A Japanese space probe successfully landed and then departed from the surface of an asteroid 290 million kilometers (180 million miles) from Earth, despite an initial announcement that the attempt had failed, Japan's space agency said.

JAXA officials had said on Sunday that the Hayabusa probe, on a mission to briefly land on the asteroid Itokawa, collect material, and then bring it back to Earth, had failed to touch down after maneuvering within meters (yards) of the asteroid's surface.

However, on Wednesday JAXA said that data sent from Hayabusa confirmed that it had landed on the asteroid on Sunday for about half an hour. However, the probe failed to collect material, JAXA said.

The Hayabusa is making a go-round and will attempt a second landing.

The Liberal Democratic Party celebrated the fiftieth anniversary of its founding yesterday:

The Liberal Democratic Party marked the 50th anniversary of its founding Tuesday and Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi told a celebratory convention the party's mission now is to implement structural reforms on a par with the Meiji Restoration and the postwar economic miracle to cope with a changing world.

"In Japan's modern political history, two big reforms can be called 'miracles.' One was the Meiji Restoration of 1867-68, and the other is the reform that came 60 years ago after the defeat in World War II," said Koizumi, who is also LDP president, at the convention in Tokyo.

The Meiji Restoration marked the transfer of power from the feudalistic Tokugawa shogunate to a new central government, ushering in the Meiji Era (1868-1912) and forcing the country out of three centuries of isolation.

Koizumi noted that the two reforms were achieved after many people were killed.

"How can we, in a peaceful way, implement reforms to deal with ongoing change around the globe?" he asked. "That is the duty of this governing party as it marks the 50th anniversary of its founding."

The party also publicized some of its new platform, including one that's been both controversial and anticipated:

Secretary General Takebe officially unveiled the new party platform, the goals of which are a new ideology that embraces "contributing to the realization of world peace," "passage of constitutional revisions," "revision of fundamental education law," and "achieving small government."

Former Prime Minister Mori, chair of the party's drafting committee for constitutional revisions, announced proposed revisions that stipulate that Japan maintains a "self-defense army" and add new rights related to privacy and the environment.

I haven't seen anything about phrasing that would give Japan the right to participate in "collective defense" missions, which was the other big military matter under discussion in the drafting committee.

Today the meeting was between Koizumi and the ROK's President Roh:

On the evening of 18 November, Prime Minister Jun'ichiro Koizumi met with South Korean President Mu-Hyon Roh in Pusan for approximately 30 minutes. The President expressed strong opposition to "the pilgrimages by the Prime Minister and multiple other politicians to the Yasukuni Shrine," which are "a provocation to Korea." The Prime Minister once again explained, "Those pilgrimages represent both a self-examination with respect to [Japanese conduct during] the war and a gesture of respect to those who died." However, the argument established no common ground; the planned visit by President Roh to Japan within the year could not be agreed upon.

For this region, that's relatively mellow, though most of the serious animosity usually isn't vented in face-to-face meetings. Of course, heads of state in this part of the world have a habit of refusing to visit each other...well, to visit Japan. (Balloon-Juice had a post the other day that made a few not-bad points about the dynamic between us and the PRC but struck me as a little bit flibbertigibbety and too-touchy about what constitutes a serious diplomatic insult in these parts.)

So Japan has managed to alarm both of its closest neighbors with which it has strong economic ties. Of course, there doesn't seem to have been anything from North Korea, but just you wait: the UN, presumably anxious to quell rumors that it thinks it was rather charming of the DPRK to kidnap fifteen Japanese nationals from their native beaches, condemned the late-70s abductions yesterday. Or maybe it was the day before--you know, all those UN announcements that we should play nice tend to run together. Kim's bound to have a reaction to that.

The extension of the SDF deployment in Iraq looks like a done deal--this Nikkei report is a little firmer than the last one I saw yesterday:

At the Japan-US meeting between heads of state on 16 November, Prime Minister Jun'ichiro Koizumi revealed, for all intents and purposes, that the deployment of SDF personnel in Iraq, which comes up against its existing end date in December, will be extended. The extension is based on a judgement that, since other countries contributing to the multi-national force will keep their troops stationed there, the US will not be understanding if Japan alone withdraws. However, the UK and Australian forces that serve as escorts for the SDF are set to be withdrawn in May of next year. The [US] president expressed appreciation for Japan's support; the prime minister, in the meantime, is already looking to set a withdrawal date.

"Japan, as a member of international society, must continue to support Iraq towards its goal of standing on its own."

With that roundabout utterance, the prime minister conveyed to the president that the troop deployment would be extended.

Tokyo Governor Shintaro Ishihara is an endless source of provocation:

Tokyo Metropolitan Governor Shintaro Ishihara, on a visit to the US, gave a lecture at a think tank on 3 November and warned that, if thrust into a war with China, "the US, which reveres human life, would surely lose."

He indicated that the reason was that China, unlike the human-rights-valuing US, would not fear the loss of large numbers of human lives.

Well, not that long ago we fought a death-glorifying Asian enemy whose air force pilots were notoriously willing to sink our warships by flying their planes into them...uh, not the best historian here...who was that again? Anyway, I'm pretty sure we won, partially because our scruples about human rights didn't prevent us from striking big-time HARD at the enemy when the time came.

China has many, many people, true. It also has a decided nationalistic streak that could be used to get those people riled up in war time. But the CCP's troubles in coordinating its own government, let alone keeping the reins it would like on the Chinese populace, are well known. Invading and taking China over would be exceedingly diffcult; at the same time, projecting force in a coordinated and far-reaching fashion is something the US now has more sustained experience with than any other country on earth.

Be that as it may, Ishihara's recommendations go along predictable lines:

He argued that, to combat the rise of China, what was needed was not military might but "a policy of economic containment." He called for measures to isolate China by, for example, strengthening ties with India. Given that the Chinese economy is dependent on foreign technology, if exchange with foreign countries is restricted, Ishihara said, "it will dry up economically and be unable to maneuver."

Interesting how the best way for the US to further its interests would just, you know, happen to coincide with a policy that would seriously stick it to Japan's most ancient rival. What a felicitous coincidence, huh?

In real life, the gigantic Chinese market means a lot to Ishihara's own people, whose economy, he's surely noticed, has been having its own share of troubles. Additionally, if there are hazards involved in economic and technological investment in a country run by a regime like the CCP, there are also hazards involved in flagrantly attempting to stunt its growth and prosperity. Beijing would have no trouble using that to its own ends in fomenting anti-foreigner sentiment among its people--it welcomes every chance to deflect dissatisfaction away from itself--in which case our military power might come in handy after all.

There's pretty obviously no way to guarantee that China will not become a huge problem, but the current approach seems the best of the available options, even if specific policies sometimes err to far in the direction of making nice with the CCP. Making all billion-plus Chinese prosperous and content at once is impossible, but as long as a solid proportion of people think they have a shot at bettering their lives, they're less likely to get restive, even if US ally India becomes a major economic competitor and keeps China's growth in check somewhat.