The White Peril 白禍

Some updates on news items I usually post about when there are new developments.

First, yet another of the world's inexhaustible supply of expert panels making contributions to the obvious has...well, made a contribution to the obvious: namely, if a major earthquake hit Tokyo, there could be catastrophic damage. This particular shocker was dispensed to us through an NHK special last night that was nowhere near as cool as the one they broadcast a few years ago. As always, the predictions are carefully qualified because the amount of damage would depend not just on the Richter scale magnitude (total energy release) but also on how deep underground the focus is, which affects how bad the shaking is at the surface. The special this time around featured man-on-the-street interviews of people explaining what most frightened them about a potential earthquake. Is it the possibility of being trapped on the subway? Being trampled by panicky mobs of citizens? Being tossed around like clothes in a Speed Queen if you're on one of the upper floors of a skyscraper? It was, in a strange way, comfortingly ghoulish.

*******

The draft of the proposed constitutional amendment, designed to allow Japan to participate with allies in collective self-defense operations, has been completed by the ruling coalition's committee. It explicitly renounces nuclear arming (not a few people think Japan has quietly developed nukes already). That's actually not the only amendment up for debate. There's to be change in the way the Emperor's position is to be articulated, and there are a few individual rights made explicit. Japanese accounts don't seem to have good quotations from the proposal, but FWIW, the Nikkei's most recent report is here.

And for those of us who came of age in the '80's, former Prime Minister Yasuhiro Nakasone has endorsed the idea of a revision--he was a friend of Reagan at the end of the Cold War, so this is not a surprise--and has his own, slightly different proposal from the committee's.

*******

The Koizumi administration has gotten some hold-outs among the ministries on board for its subsidy-reduction plan. Education and welfare seem to be the remaining major points of contention.

*******

Oh, and I can't believe I neglected to say anything about this Monday--Atsushi e-mailed me about it the moment he saw the news report: Japan's ranking eligible bachelorette is engaged. Princess Sayako, daughter of the current emperor and empress, and sister of the crown prince, is 35. The media have been trying to put a polite mask over everyone's complete and utter disbelief, but it's not working too well.

The deployment of Japan's Self-Defense Forces in a non-combat capacity in Iraq will be extended. The New Komei Party, which is the LDP's partner in the ruling coalition, is pacifist and balked for a while at approving the extension; things haven't gotten any easier since the hostage was beheaded. Things were resolved earlier this week, but the posting of the English summary at the Yomiuri is nice to see on Veteran's Day.

The Mainichi reports that a new poll shows support for the Koizumi administration's decision to stand firm on its Iraq policy in the face of the abduction of Shosei Koda last month:

A total of 57 percent of the 1,095 pollees said they supported the government's stance, even though Iraqi militants murdered Japanese national Shosei Koda after they threatened to kill him unless Japan withdraw the Self-Defense Forces (SDF) from Iraq.

Only 24 percent said they didn't back the government's decision to maintain SDF reconstruction activities in Iraq.

However, the poll also found that a majority, 51 percent, wanted Japan to withdraw the SDF from Iraq when its deployment expires on Dec. 14. Only 27 percent said the government should extend the dispatch of the SDF.

That sounds about right to me. The Japanese love their country and don't take well to seeing it treated contemptuously by foreigners. They are also big on stoically fulfilling your duty to your in-group--the Japanese may no longer be used to actual war, but they've retained that aspect of their famed warrior culture. Most people, I think, recognize that the US is part of Japan's in-group in geopolitical terms, even if they wish Koizumi weren't quite so willing to back Bush's policies with SDF personnel. On the other hand, this makes sense also:

The poll, carried out over the weekend, shows that the percentage of those who are in support of the government's stance to refuse a request of SDF withdrawal dropped slightly, compared to April, when other militants demanded the troops leave after kidnapping three Japanese people.

This drop in the percentage of people in support of the government's stance is apparently attributable to the shocking murder of Koda.

The Japanese frequently fall into the same trap the Americans do: because they sell goods and give out aid and send tourist money to everyone else, they don't understand why anyone would resent them. (In more Japan-specific terms, a shocking number of people simply cannot fathom why ill-will over World War II continues to the present day; that was a long time ago, the thinking goes, and we've been building factories in your country and employing your people for decades since then. Besides, we can't attack anyone again--it's in the constitution.)

BTW, there's been yet another aftershock in Niigata. (We felt it here pretty strongly; I was worried it might have been a good 6 somewhere else.) This one was 5 on the JMA scale and seems to have caused a few landslides, with injuries but luckily no deaths.